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Everyone assumed Nvidia would get crushed by ASICs but the data says the opposite just happened and the reason why chang…

Milk Road AI Twitter · Milk Road AI (@MilkRoadAI) · 2026-06-18

Milk Road AI argues that contrary to two years of consensus, Nvidia has not lost ground to custom ASICs and that the underlying reason fundamentally changes how to interpret the AI chip competition.

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Topics: nvidiaasicsai-chipssemiconductor-market

Claims

  • Conventional wisdom for two years predicted custom ASICs would gradually eat Nvidia's market share.
  • Data shows the opposite has happened: Nvidia has held or grown its position against ASICs.
  • The reason Nvidia has not been displaced by ASICs changes fundamental assumptions about the chip war.

Key quotes

Everyone assumed Nvidia would get crushed by ASICs but the data says the opposite just happened and the reason why changes everything about how you think about the chip war.
The conventional bet for two years has been that custom ASICs would gradually eat Nvidia's market share.