What Does This Mean for the Memory Supercycle?
SemiAnalysis Twitter · SemiAnalysis (@SemiAnalysis_) · 2026-06-30
SemiAnalysis argues that CXMT's growing DRAM output does not threaten the ongoing memory supercycle because global undersupply remains too severe for Chinese production to materially loosen the market or compress pricing.
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Extraction
Topics: dram-memorymemory-supercyclecxmthbm
Claims
- CXMT's incremental DRAM output is insufficient to materially loosen a market defined by extreme undersupply.
- Chinese memory pricing has broadly tracked global DRAM market strength, making CXMT a beneficiary of the shortage rather than a deflationary force.
- CXMT should be viewed as a long-term structural competitive force rather than a near-term threat to SK Hynix, Samsung, or Micron.
- The memory supercycle remains intact, driven by constrained supply, rising memory content, HBM wafer absorption, and accelerating AI-driven demand.
Key quotes
CXMT's rise should be viewed NOT cycle-killer nor imminent threat to leading memory players, but more as a long-term structural competitive force.
The supercycle remains defined by constrained supply, rising memory content, HBM wafer absorption, and accelerating AI-driven demand.
Chinese memory pricing has also gone through the roof, broadly tracking the strength seen across the global DRAM market.