You should remain extremely bullish on memory and especially on Micron (Save this).
Milk Road AI Twitter · Milk Road AI (@MilkRoadAI) · 2026-07-03
UBS forecasts DRAM prices rising 32% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2026 and the memory market remaining structurally undersupplied until at least Q2 2028, with Micron reporting $41.5B quarterly revenue and $100B in take-or-pay contracts.
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Topics: dram-pricingsemiconductor-investmentmemory-marketmicron
Claims
- UBS forecasts DRAM contract prices rising 32% QoQ in Q3 2026 and 18% in Q4, compounding a 67% QoQ increase already recorded in Q2 2026.
- NAND pricing is also rising sharply, with 30% QoQ expected in Q3 and 12% in Q4 on top of a prior 67% jump.
- UBS projects the DRAM industry will remain undersupplied until at least Q2 2028, with 2027 bit demand growing 36.2% YoY against supply growth of only 19.3%.
- Micron reported Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue of $41.5B, up 346% year-over-year, with 81.2% operating margins and $100B in take-or-pay contracts.
- UBS sees no meaningful HBM procurement impact from Meta's recent comments and attributes the memory stock pullback to positioning rather than deteriorating fundamentals.
Key quotes
UBS forecasts the DRAM industry to remain undersupplied until at least Q2 2028.
In 2027, bit demand is expected to grow 36.2% year over year while supply only grows 19.3%. That gap cannot be closed within the timeframe no matter how aggressively suppliers try to ramp, because building new memory fabrication capacity takes years.
Memory prices have gone up by more in the last two quarters than most businesses manage in a decade.