Memory as a share of Hyperscaler CapEx has drawn a lot of chatter, especially after MU earnings last week. Some market p…

SemiAnalysis Twitter · SemiAnalysis (@SemiAnalysis_) · 2026-07-03

SemiAnalysis projects memory will exceed 30% of hyperscaler CapEx by year-end 2026 and surpass 40% in 2027, driven by combined DRAM, NAND, and HBM spend in Nvidia AI systems.

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Appears in

AI Demand Outpaces Moore's Law: Semiconductor Import Prices Hit Historic Highs

Extraction

Topics: hyperscaler-capexmemory-spendhbmdramai-infrastructure

Claims

Combined DRAM, NAND, and HBM spending in an Nvidia AI system will clear 30% of CapEx by year-end 2026.
Memory's share of hyperscaler CapEx will move above 40% in CY27.
Memory pricing in 2026 rose faster than SemiAnalysis initially expected, reinforcing their earlier 30% forecast.
Market participants significantly underestimated memory's share of CapEx because they anchored on memory as a fraction of server BOM rather than total CapEx.

Key quotes

combine DRAM, NAND, and HBM, and memory spend in an Nvidia system clears 30% by YE26 and moves above 40% in CY27.

Memory is in the teens as a share of a server BOM. How could overall CapEx be that high?