AI 2040: Plan A
Alignment Forum · Daniel Kokotajlo · 2026-07-09
The AI Futures Project releases 'AI 2040: Plan A,' a detailed normative scenario recommending that the US and Chinese governments take decisive coordinated action to delay superintelligence creation from 2030 to 2040.
Extraction
Topics: ai-futuressuperintelligenceai-policyscenario-planningagi-timelines
Claims
- 'AI 2040: Plan A' is a normative recommendation for what should happen, not a prediction of what will happen.
- The scenario posits that without government intervention superintelligence would arrive around 2030, but coordinated US-China action delays it to 2040.
- The scenario is intended to be detailed and comprehensive rather than relying on high-level abstractions about doom or utopia.
- The AI Futures Project views the scenario as plausible enough to serve as a realistic policy target.
Key quotes
It's called Plan A because it's a recommendation, not a prediction. It's what we think should happen, not what will happen, though we think it's plausible enough to aim for.
It's called AI 2040 because in it, they delay the creation of superintelligence to 2040. It would have happened much sooner (in 2030, to be precise) if not for decisive action on the part of the US and Chinese governments.