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This is the most contrarian take in tech right now and there are real numbers behind it (Save this).

Milk Road AI Twitter · Milk Road AI (@MilkRoadAI) · 2026-05-17

Milk Road AI highlights David Friedberg's data-backed contrarian argument that China's massive semiconductor investment combined with escalating ASML export restrictions will produce a self-sufficient Chinese chip ecosystem.

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Topics: china-semiconductorsgeopolitics-techasmlexport-controls

Claims

  • China is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to build an independent domestic semiconductor ecosystem.
  • Western governments are increasingly blocking ASML sales to China, accelerating Chinese self-sufficiency efforts.
  • Friedberg's thesis—that China will succeed in building its own chip stack—is contrarian to mainstream Western tech opinion but is supported by concrete numbers.

Key quotes

This is the most contrarian take in tech right now and there are real numbers behind it.