Gavin Baker just gave the clearest framework for tracking whether the AI cycle turns into a bubble.
Milk Road AI Twitter · Milk Road AI (@MilkRoadAI) · 2026-05-20
Investor Gavin Baker proposes that TSMC's semiconductor capacity decisions are the single most reliable indicator for determining whether the current AI investment cycle will inflate into a bubble.
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Extraction
Topics: ai-investmentai-bubble-risksemiconductor-industry
Claims
- TSMC's capacity decisions are the best single metric for tracking whether AI investment is becoming a bubble.
- Every major technology breakthrough in history has eventually produced a speculative bubble.
- The recurring pattern is: a genuine breakthrough attracts capital, which then overshoots fundamentals.
- Supply-side chip decisions signal whether AI demand is real or speculative.
Key quotes
"Watch one thing: TSMC's capacity decisions."