The Information Machine

AI Company Public Market Access: S&P 500 Rejects SpaceX Fast-Track, Closing Path for OpenAI and Anthropic · history

Version 11

2026-06-19 18:30 UTC · 459 items

What

Three AI companies are at different stages of going public. SpaceX completed its IPO on June 12 and trades at ~$1.8T market cap. [6] Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 on June 1 at a ~$965B valuation [18] and has since faced enterprise backlash, reported model delays, a U.S. government restriction on foreign-national access to Fable 5 [22], and reportedly lobbied the White House to lift that restriction less than three weeks after filing its IPO papers. [23] OpenAI filed its S-1 on June 8 [13]; leaked 2025 financials show $13.07B in revenue against a net GAAP loss of ~$38.5B–$39B [11], and Sam Altman has reportedly hinted the listing will come 'within next year.' [15] S&P Dow Jones Indices rejected rule changes in early June that would have loosened its GAAP profitability requirement, keeping both labs out of the S&P 500 for the foreseeable future. [1]

Why it matters

The leaked OpenAI financials — a net GAAP loss of ~$38.5B–$39B against $13.07B in 2025 revenues — give concrete scale to the profitability gap that S&P Dow Jones maintained when it rejected the rule changes, a gap that passive index funds managing roughly $30T in retirement assets would otherwise be exposed to. [3] Anthropic's White House lobbying on Fable 5 access, occurring while its S-1 is confidential, shows that government model-access restrictions are now a material and disclosable risk in the AI lab IPO process.

Open questions

  • Altman reportedly hinted the OpenAI IPO could come 'within next year' [15], while a separate report placed the actual offering in 2027 [16] and Polymarket put 71% odds on a 2026 completion as of June 9 [17] — which timeline is operative?

  • Did Anthropic successfully persuade the White House to lift the foreign-national access restriction on Fable 5 [23], and if not, how does that restriction affect the IPO's investor narrative at the $965B valuation? [18]

  • OpenAI's 2025 net GAAP loss of ~$38.5B–$39B ran against $13.07B in revenues [11] — on what timeline, if any, can the company reach the GAAP profitability S&P Dow Jones requires for index inclusion? [1]

  • SpaceX's SEC filings assign AI nearly all of a $28.5T projected TAM [25] — as trading matures, will investors price SpaceX primarily as an AI company or revert to a rocket/Starlink valuation?

Narrative

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on June 4, 2026 that it would not change its S&P 500 eligibility rules, rejecting proposals that would have waived the GAAP profitability requirement and shortened the seasoning window for newly listed companies. [1][2] The proposals had drawn criticism because they appeared designed to fast-track SpaceX, which does not meet the standard of positive earnings in the most recent quarter and cumulatively over the prior four quarters. Passive-investor advocates warned the proposed changes would coerce roughly $30 trillion in retirement funds into buying speculative IPO exposure; the S&P committee sided with them. [3] SpaceX nonetheless proceeded: shares priced at $135 on June 11 [4] — below the $151.27 at which shares traded on the Hiive secondary market [5] — and rose 19% on the first trading day on June 12 to close at $160.95, immediately making SpaceX the sixth-largest company by market cap at approximately $1.8 trillion. [6][7]

Leaked OpenAI financial documents published June 16, obtained by journalist Ed Zitron and reviewed by the Financial Times, show 2025 revenues of $13.07B against R&D expenses of $19.18B — including $10.59B paid to Microsoft for compute — and total spending of roughly $34B. [8][9] Fortune reported the operating loss at approximately $21B [10]; separately reported figures from the same documents put the net GAAP loss at ~$38.5B–$39B [11][12] — larger than the revenue-minus-spending gap because it includes non-cash charges such as stock-based compensation. OpenAI filed its confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 8 with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advising, while stating no fixed offering timeline. [13][14] Sam Altman has since reportedly hinted at a listing 'within next year,' [15] though a separate report from mid-June suggested the actual offering has shifted to 2027. [16] Polymarket odds for an OpenAI IPO completed by end of 2026 stood at 71% as of June 9. [17]

Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 1 at a $965 billion valuation, with annualized revenues tracking toward $45 billion. [18][19] The filing was followed by a series of complications. Enterprise users pushed back against a Fable 5 data retention policy reversal [20], and reports from mid-June described delays in new model releases. [21] A U.S. government order restricted foreign-national access to Fable 5 and another advanced model [22], and Anthropic reportedly went to the White House in mid-June to lobby for the restriction's reversal, less than three weeks after filing its IPO papers. [23] Separately, the company publicly backed Trump's AI Executive Order — covering voluntary frontier benchmarks, cyber hardening, and industry cooperation — a move observers characterized as strategically timed given the ongoing access dispute. [24]

SpaceX's SEC filings project a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion with AI as the dominant component, and the company disclosed a compute arrangement with Anthropic and Google totaling roughly $26 billion per year. [25][26] Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are advising both the OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs, reportedly using different structural approaches for each. [27] Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas, by contrast, confirmed a 2028 IPO target and described himself as agnostic about the competing filings, arguing the next AI phase will favor compute efficiency over raw scale. [28][29]

Timeline

  • 2026-05-29: Passive-investor advocates warn proposed S&P 500 rule changes would force $30T in retirement funds to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. [3]
  • 2026-05-30: SpaceX files an S-1 for an IPO targeting ~$1.75T valuation, disclosing ~$26B/year in compute revenue from Google and Anthropic. [26][34][35]
  • 2026-05-31: Reports emerge that OpenAI is preparing a confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, targeting September 2026. [36][37]
  • 2026-06-01: Anthropic announces confidential S-1 submission to the SEC, disclosing a $965B valuation, $65B Series H, and annualized revenues tracking toward $45B. [18][38][19][39]
  • 2026-06-04: S&P Dow Jones Indices rejects proposed rule changes, maintaining 12-month seasoning and GAAP profitability requirements for S&P 500 inclusion. [2][30][1]
  • 2026-06-07: OpenAI reported to be preparing the largest ChatGPT redesign in the product's history, targeting transformation into a coding, agent, and business software superapp ahead of its IPO. [40]
  • 2026-06-08: OpenAI files a confidential S-1 with the SEC; the company states no timeline is set and it 'may be a while' before an offering. [13][41][14]
  • 2026-06-09: Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas confirms a 2028 IPO target; Polymarket odds for OpenAI IPO by end of 2026 stand at 71%. [28][17][29]
  • 2026-06-10: Anthropic's Fable 5 draws enterprise backlash over a data retention policy reversal; one report suggests OpenAI is now targeting 2027 for its actual listing. [20][16]
  • 2026-06-11: SpaceX finalizes IPO price at $135 per share; IPO order book approximately four times oversubscribed. [4][42][43]
  • 2026-06-12: SpaceX begins trading on NASDAQ, rising 19% to close at $160.95 — above the $151.27 pre-listing secondary-market price — immediately becoming the sixth-largest company by market cap at ~$1.8T. [6][7][5]
  • 2026-06-15: Anthropic reportedly delays release of new AI models, raising questions about its product roadmap ahead of any IPO. [21]
  • 2026-06-16: Leaked OpenAI financial documents show 2025 revenues of $13.07B, R&D of $19.18B (including $10.59B to Microsoft), total spending of ~$34B, an operating loss of ~$21B, and a net GAAP loss of ~$38.5B–$39B. [8][44][10][11][9]
  • 2026-06-16: Reports indicate the U.S. government ordered Anthropic to restrict foreign-national access to Fable 5 and another advanced model. [22]
  • 2026-06-16: Anthropic reportedly goes to the White House to lobby for reversal of the Fable 5 foreign-national access restriction, less than three weeks after filing its IPO papers. [23]
  • 2026-06-17: Anthropic publicly backs Trump's AI Executive Order on voluntary frontier benchmarks, cyber hardening, and industry cooperation. [24]
  • 2026-06-18: Sam Altman reportedly hints the OpenAI IPO will come 'within next year,' leaving the actual offering window between 2026 and mid-2027. [15]

Perspectives

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Upheld existing S&P 500 eligibility rules on June 4, rejecting proposed changes that would have waived the profitability requirement and shortened the seasoning window.

Evolution: Consistent with historical standards; leaked OpenAI financials showing a net GAAP loss of ~$38.5B–$39B against $13B in revenue illustrate the scale of the profitability gap the committee's decision kept in place.

[2][30][1]

SpaceX

IPO priced at $135/share on June 11 and rose 19% on the first trading day to $160.95; SEC filings project a $28.5T TAM with AI as the dominant component and disclose ~$26B/year in compute revenue from Google and Anthropic.

Evolution: Moved from S-1 filing to completed trading; the first-day close above private secondary-market levels reversed the apparent institutional discount at pricing.

[6][7][25][26]

OpenAI / Sam Altman

Filed confidential S-1 on June 8 with no fixed timeline; Altman has reportedly hinted at a listing 'within next year.' Leaked financials show a net GAAP loss of ~$38.5B–$39B against $13.07B in 2025 revenues, with R&D alone ($19.18B) exceeding total revenue.

Evolution: Filed within a week of Anthropic while publicly downplaying urgency; the 'within next year' hint and a separate 2027 report leave the actual offering window unresolved.

[13][14][16][8][10][11][15]

Anthropic

Filed confidential S-1 on June 1 at a $965B valuation and ~$45B annualized revenue run rate; subsequently faced enterprise backlash over Fable 5 data policy, reported model delays, a U.S. government restriction on foreign-national model access, and — per reports — lobbied the White House to lift that restriction while backing Trump's AI Executive Order.

Evolution: First formal public-market move; the Fable 5 restriction and White House engagement add a regulatory dimension to the IPO risk profile not visible at the time of filing.

[18][19][20][21][22][23][24]

Perplexity / Aravind Srinivas

Plans a 2028 IPO and describes himself as agnostic about the Anthropic and OpenAI filings; argues the next AI phase will favor compute efficiency over raw scale.

Evolution: Consistent since first stated; positions Perplexity as deliberately outside the frontier-lab IPO rush.

[28][29]

Hedgeye / passive-investor advocates

Argued proposed S&P rule changes would coerce passive retirement funds into buying speculative companies at IPO valuations; praised the committee for holding its profitability rule.

Evolution: Alarm proved directionally correct; leaked OpenAI financials showing a ~$38.5B–$39B net GAAP loss give a concrete illustration of the profitability gap they warned about.

[3][31][8][10]

Databricks CEO / industry skeptics

Called 2026 'a terrible year to go public,' citing the crowded AI IPO pipeline and market conditions.

Evolution: SpaceX's strong first-day performance partially undercut this view, but leaked OpenAI financials and Anthropic's reported complications are consistent with the skeptical case.

[20][8][10]

Tensions

  • OpenAI's leaked financials show a net GAAP loss of ~$38.5B–$39B against $13.07B in 2025 revenues [11][10], directly showing how far OpenAI is from the GAAP profitability S&P Dow Jones requires for index inclusion — the same standard passive-investor advocates defended when S&P rejected the rule changes. [1] [11][10][1][3]
  • Altman said publicly OpenAI was not chasing Anthropic's IPO timeline, yet filed OpenAI's S-1 eight days after Anthropic's; he has since reportedly hinted at a listing 'within next year' [15] while a separate report placed the actual offering in 2027. [16] [13][18][16][15]
  • SpaceX's first-day close of $160.95 exceeded the $151.27 Hiive secondary-market price, making the $135 IPO price look conservative — partially undercutting the Databricks CEO's claim that 2026 is 'a terrible year to go public,' though Anthropic's complications and OpenAI's uncertain timeline are consistent with the skeptical view. [6][5][20][16]
  • SpaceX's SEC filings assign AI nearly all of a $28.5T projected TAM, but most investors still process SpaceX primarily as a rocket company — a framing gap Gwynne Shotwell's CNBC appearance attempted to close. [25][32]
  • Hedgeye and passive-investor advocates argued S&P exclusion protects retirement savers from speculative IPO exposure, but Fortune argues S&P exclusion still does not fully protect 401(k) investors who can hold SpaceX through non-index vehicles. [3][2][33]

Sources

  1. [1] S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic — Ars Technica AI (2026-06-05)
  2. [2] S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on June 4, 2026, that it rejected proposed rule changes for faster S&P 500 inclu... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-05)
  3. [3] Hedgeye on X: "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P" / X — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  4. [4] SpaceX Finalizes IPO Price at $135 a Share in World's Largest ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  5. [5] SpaceX Stock | Hiive Price $151.27 | Invest or Sell — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  6. [6] SpaceX is now a public company valued for its AI potential, so what comes next? — Ars Technica AI (2026-06-12)
  7. [7] BREAKING: SpaceX closes 19% above IPO pricing on its first day of trading, immediately becoming the sixth-largest compan... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-14)
  8. [8] Leaked financial docs show OpenAI is losing billions of dollars a year — Ars Technica AI (2026-06-16)
  9. [9] OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, With Spending Hitting ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  10. [10] OpenAI's financials have leaked, showing $21B in losses against $13B in revenue — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-16)
  11. [11] OpenAI’s 2025 financials show $13.07B revenue against $34B in spending and a $38.5B–$39B net loss as IPO preparations mo... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-16)
  12. [12] OpenAI's audited 2025 financials just leaked. Revenue tripled to $13.07 billion. Losses grew nearly eight times to $38.5... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-18)
  13. [13] BREAKING: WSJ reports OpenAI just made its first formal move toward IPO. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-08)
  14. [14] OpenAI confirms confidential S-1 filing with the SEC for an IPO but says no fixed timeline, noting it "may be a while" a... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  15. [15] OpenAI IPO: Sam Altman Reportedly Reveals Timeline, Hints At ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  16. [16] JUST IN: OpenAI now expected to go public next year, delaying earlier IPO timing. Market factor: shifting timeline could... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-10)
  17. [17] POLYMARKET ODDS OF AN OPENAI IPO BY DECEMBER 31, 2026 ARE NOW AT 71% — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  18. [18] Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC — Anthropic News (2026-06-01)
  19. [19] Anthropic files to go public - TechCrunch — reactive:anthropic-partnerships-expansion
  20. [20] 🟡 What your grandkids will remember — Semafor Technology (2026-06-10)
  21. [21] BREAKING: Anthropic delays release of new AI models, raising questions about product roadmap and potential IPO timeline.... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-15)
  22. [22] The U.S. government ordered Anthropic to cut off all foreign nationals from its two most advanced AI models, Fable 5 and... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-16)
  23. [23] Anthropic walked into the White House Monday to argue its own models back into existence — two weeks after filing IPO pa... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-17)
  24. [24] Anthropic backs Trump's new AI Executive Order: voluntary frontier benchmarks, cyber hardening, industry co-op. Smart ti... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-17)
  25. [25] The official SEC filings of @SpaceX says AI accounts for almost all of its expected $28.5 trillion total addressable mar… — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-12)
  26. [26] SpaceX files S-1 IPO — reveals $1.25B/month compute deal with Anthropic — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-05-30)
  27. [27] Goldman Sachs $GS and Morgan Stanley $MS are both going to lead IPOs for OpenAI and Anthropic — but they’re using comple... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-18)
  28. [28] Perplexity just said it plans a 2028 IPO no matter how Anthropic, OpenAI, or SpaceX trade when they hit public markets. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-09)
  29. [29] Perplexity is sticking to its plan for a 2028 IPO as Anthropic and OpenAI race to market: CEO Aravind Srinivas said the ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  30. [30] S&P keeps door closed to mega-IPOs. The index provider will keep a 12-month seasoning rule and GAAP profitability te... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-04)
  31. [31] Great job from the S&P 500 committee for staying firm on their positive net income rule. SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenA... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-05)
  32. [32] Gwynne Shotwell just gave CNBC the clearest explanation of what SpaceX's AI strategy actually is and most investors are … — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-06-12)
  33. [33] The S&P 500 will exclude SpaceX but Elon Musk is coming for your retirement savings anyway | Fortune — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  34. [34] SpaceX is going public at a $1.75 trillion valuation. The world's biggest IPO ever. — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-05)
  35. [35] 🚀 Seguimiento SpaceX IPO: ~$26 mil millones/año solo de Google + Anthropic por compute en Colossus (S-1). — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-06)
  36. [36] @CryptoMilox OpenAI's prepping a confidential IPO filing with Goldman & Morgan Stanley right now, eyeing Sept 2026. ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-05-31)
  37. [37] OpenAI aiming for speedy IPO, source says - Reuters — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  38. [38] Anthropic just took the formal first step toward its IPO. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-01)
  39. [39] Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC — reactive:anthropic-rapid-ascent
  40. [40] OpenAI is preparing its biggest ChatGPT redesign yet, before its IPO. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-07)
  41. [41] 🚨 OpenAI confirms confidential IPO filing, no timeline set. $OPENAI https://t.co/Kf2lZw5RZL — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  42. [42] SpaceX plans to set IPO price at $135 per share, targeting ... - Reuters — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  43. [43] SPCX perp -27% as SpaceX IPO books run ~4x oversubscribed on a $1.8T valuation, demand vs target, pricing Thursday, tr... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-10)
  44. [44] FT: OpenAI is growing fast, but its numbers show how expensive frontier AI has become. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-16)