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AI Company Public Market Access: S&P 500 Rejects SpaceX Fast-Track, Closing Path for OpenAI and Anthropic · history

Version 14

2026-06-24 18:13 UTC · 553 items

What

Three AI-adjacent companies are at different stages of public market entry. SpaceX completed its June 2026 IPO at roughly $1.8T market cap; after greenshoe exercise, total proceeds reached $85.7B, reported as the largest IPO in recorded history. [7] Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 on June 1 at a ~$965B valuation [19] and has since faced a U.S. government restriction on foreign-national access to its Fable 5 model, while simultaneously negotiating a deal to run Claude on Microsoft's custom Maia 200 AI chip. [24][22] OpenAI filed its S-1 on June 8 [11]; leaked 2025 financials show $13.07B in revenue against a net GAAP loss of ~$38.5B–$39B — a figure that includes roughly $31B in non-cash stock compensation, generating a dispute over how those losses should be read. [14][15] S&P Dow Jones Indices rejected rule changes that would have loosened its GAAP profitability requirement, keeping both labs out of the index. [1]

Why it matters

SpaceX's $85.7B in total proceeds set a market reference point the two AI labs cannot match on current fundamentals. If OpenAI's Q1 2026 revenue reached $5.7B [16], the revenue run rate has roughly doubled from the 2025 annual pace — but how investors and index committees should read the accompanying losses is now contested, since most of the GAAP figure is non-cash. [15][1] Anthropic's Maia 200 chip negotiations and White House engagement over Fable 5 access restrictions show that compute sourcing and government relations are material, disclosable IPO risks.

Open questions

  • Altman reportedly hinted the OpenAI IPO could come 'within next year' [18], while a separate report placed the actual offering in 2027 [17] and Polymarket put 71% odds on a 2026 completion as of June 9 [27] — which timeline is operative?

  • Did Anthropic successfully persuade the White House to lift the foreign-national access restriction on Fable 5 [25], and if not, how does that restriction affect the IPO investor narrative at the $965B valuation? [19]

  • Will S&P's GAAP profitability test treat non-cash stock compensation as disqualifying, or will IPO underwriters frame a non-GAAP figure — possibly as low as ~$8B — as the operative loss measure for prospective investors? [15][1]

  • Have Anthropic and Microsoft concluded a deal to deploy Claude on the Maia 200 chip [22], and if so, how does that affect Anthropic's existing compute relationships with Google and Amazon disclosed in SpaceX's own S-1? [9]

Narrative

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on June 4, 2026 that it would not change its S&P 500 eligibility rules, rejecting proposals that would have waived the GAAP profitability requirement and shortened the seasoning window for newly listed companies. [1][2] The proposals had drawn criticism because they appeared designed to fast-track SpaceX, which does not meet the standard of positive earnings in the most recent quarter and cumulatively over the prior four quarters. Passive-investor advocates warned the proposed changes would coerce roughly $30 trillion in retirement funds into buying speculative IPO exposure; the S&P committee sided with them. [3]

SpaceX proceeded regardless. Shares priced at $135 on June 11 [4] and rose 19% on the first trading day on June 12 to close at $160.95, immediately making SpaceX the sixth-largest company by market cap at approximately $1.8 trillion. [5][6] After the greenshoe option was fully exercised, total proceeds reached $85.7 billion — reported as the largest IPO in recorded history. [7] SpaceX's SEC filings project a $28.5 trillion total addressable market with AI as the dominant component, and disclose a compute arrangement with Anthropic and Google totaling roughly $26 billion per year. [8][9] The stock has since pulled back from its first-day close. [10]

OpenAI filed its confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 8, eight days after Anthropic, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advising. [11][12] Leaked financial documents published June 16 show 2025 revenues of $13.07B against an operating loss of approximately $21B and a net GAAP loss of ~$38.5B–$39B. [13][14] The gap between the operating and net loss figures — roughly $18B — consists largely of non-cash stock-based compensation; one analysis noted the same spreadsheet can be read as a $39B loss or an ~$8B cash loss depending on accounting treatment, a distinction that will matter to investors and index eligibility tests evaluating IPO prospects. [15] A subsequent report placed Q1 2026 revenue at $5.7B with $3.7B in cash burn for the quarter, suggesting the revenue run rate has accelerated well above the 2025 annual pace. [16] Sam Altman has reportedly hinted at a listing 'within next year,' though a separate report placed the actual offering in 2027. [17][18]

Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 1 at a $965 billion valuation, with annualized revenues tracking toward $45 billion. [19][20] Before the IPO filing, in May 2026, Anthropic entered talks with Microsoft to run Claude on Microsoft's custom Maia 200 AI chip — a TSMC 3nm design launched in January 2026 — following Microsoft's $5 billion investment in the company. [21][22][23] Those talks remain ongoing alongside Anthropic's existing compute relationships with Google and Amazon, which are separately disclosed in SpaceX's own S-1. [9] In mid-June, a U.S. government order restricted foreign-national access to Fable 5 and another advanced model; Anthropic reportedly went to the White House to lobby for the restriction's reversal less than three weeks after filing its IPO papers. [24][25] Anthropic also publicly backed Trump's AI Executive Order on voluntary frontier benchmarks, cyber hardening, and industry cooperation. [26]

Timeline

  • 2026-05-21: Reports emerge that Anthropic is in talks with Microsoft to use Microsoft's custom Maia 200 AI chip, following Microsoft's $5B investment in Anthropic. [21][22]
  • 2026-05-29: Passive-investor advocates warn proposed S&P 500 rule changes would force $30T in retirement funds to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. [3]
  • 2026-05-30: SpaceX files an S-1 for an IPO targeting ~$1.75T valuation, disclosing ~$26B/year in compute revenue from Google and Anthropic. [9][35][36]
  • 2026-05-31: Reports emerge that OpenAI is preparing a confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, targeting September 2026. [37][38]
  • 2026-06-01: Anthropic announces confidential S-1 submission to the SEC, disclosing a $965B valuation, $65B Series H, and annualized revenues tracking toward $45B. [19][39][20][40]
  • 2026-06-04: S&P Dow Jones Indices rejects proposed rule changes, maintaining 12-month seasoning and GAAP profitability requirements for S&P 500 inclusion. [2][28][1]
  • 2026-06-08: OpenAI files a confidential S-1 with the SEC; the company states no timeline is set and it 'may be a while' before an offering. [11][41][12]
  • 2026-06-09: Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas confirms a 2028 IPO target; Polymarket odds for OpenAI IPO by end of 2026 stand at 71%. [29][27][30]
  • 2026-06-10: Anthropic's Fable 5 draws enterprise backlash over a data retention policy reversal; one report suggests OpenAI is now targeting 2027 for its actual listing. [33][17]
  • 2026-06-11: SpaceX finalizes IPO price at $135 per share; IPO order book approximately four times oversubscribed. [4][42][43]
  • 2026-06-12: SpaceX begins trading on NASDAQ, rising 19% to close at $160.95, immediately becoming the sixth-largest company by market cap at ~$1.8T. [5][6][44]
  • 2026-06-16: Leaked OpenAI financial documents show 2025 revenues of $13.07B, an operating loss of ~$21B, and a net GAAP loss of ~$38.5B–$39B including large non-cash stock compensation. [13][45][32][14][46]
  • 2026-06-16: The U.S. government orders Anthropic to restrict foreign-national access to Fable 5 and another advanced model. [24]
  • 2026-06-16: Anthropic reportedly goes to the White House to lobby for reversal of the Fable 5 foreign-national access restriction, less than three weeks after filing its IPO papers. [25]
  • 2026-06-17: Anthropic publicly backs Trump's AI Executive Order on voluntary frontier benchmarks, cyber hardening, and industry cooperation. [26]
  • 2026-06-18: Sam Altman reportedly hints the OpenAI IPO will come 'within next year,' leaving the actual offering window between 2026 and mid-2027. [18]
  • 2026-06-20: SpaceX greenshoe option fully exercised; total IPO proceeds confirmed at $85.7B, reported as the largest IPO in recorded history. [7]
  • 2026-06-21: One report places OpenAI Q1 2026 revenue at $5.7B with $3.7B in cash burn, suggesting the annual revenue run rate has nearly doubled from 2025. [16]

Perspectives

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Upheld existing S&P 500 eligibility rules on June 4, rejecting proposed changes that would have waived the profitability requirement and shortened the seasoning window.

Evolution: Consistent with historical standards; OpenAI's net GAAP loss of ~$38.5B–$39B against $13B in revenue illustrates the scale of the gap the committee's decision kept in place, though the non-cash composition of that loss is now contested.

[2][28][1]

SpaceX

IPO priced at $135/share, rose 19% on the first trading day to $160.95, and after greenshoe exercise total proceeds reached $85.7B; SEC filings project a $28.5T TAM with AI dominant and disclose ~$26B/year in compute revenue from Google and Anthropic.

Evolution: Moved from S-1 filing to completed trading and greenshoe exercise; stock has pulled back from its first-day close.

[5][6][8][9][7][10]

OpenAI / Sam Altman

Filed confidential S-1 on June 8 with no fixed timeline; Altman has reportedly hinted at a listing 'within next year.' Leaked 2025 financials show a net GAAP loss of ~$38.5B–$39B against $13.07B in revenue, though the bulk of that loss is non-cash stock compensation; Q1 2026 revenue is reported at $5.7B.

Evolution: Filed within a week of Anthropic while publicly downplaying urgency; the loss interpretation debate adds a new disclosure complexity, and the actual listing window — 2026 vs. 2027 — remains publicly unresolved.

[11][12][17][13][14][18][16][15]

Anthropic

Filed confidential S-1 on June 1 at a $965B valuation and ~$45B annualized revenue run rate; simultaneously in talks with Microsoft over Maia 200 chip access, lobbying the White House over Fable 5 restrictions, and publicly backing Trump's AI Executive Order.

Evolution: First formal public-market move; Maia 200 chip talks (pre-dating the IPO filing), Fable 5 restrictions, and White House lobbying add compute sourcing and government-relations risk factors not visible at the time of filing.

[19][20][22][24][25][26]

Perplexity / Aravind Srinivas

Plans a 2028 IPO and describes himself as agnostic about the Anthropic and OpenAI filings; argues the next AI phase will favor compute efficiency over raw scale.

Evolution: Consistent since first stated; positions Perplexity as deliberately outside the frontier-lab IPO rush.

[29][30]

Hedgeye / passive-investor advocates

Argued proposed S&P rule changes would coerce passive retirement funds into buying speculative companies at IPO valuations; praised the committee for holding its profitability rule.

Evolution: Directionally consistent; OpenAI's ~$39B GAAP loss gives a concrete illustration of the profitability gap they warned about, though the non-cash composition of that figure partially complicates their case.

[3][31][13][32][15]

Databricks CEO / industry skeptics

Called 2026 'a terrible year to go public,' citing the crowded AI IPO pipeline and market conditions.

Evolution: SpaceX's strong first-day performance and record greenshoe proceeds partially undercut this view, but OpenAI's continuing losses and Anthropic's regulatory complications are consistent with the skeptical case.

[33][13][32][7]

Tensions

  • OpenAI's leaked 2025 financials show a net GAAP loss of ~$38.5B–$39B against $13.07B in revenues [14][32], directly illustrating how far OpenAI is from the GAAP profitability S&P Dow Jones requires for index inclusion — the same standard passive-investor advocates defended when S&P rejected the rule changes. [1] [14][32][1][3]
  • The same OpenAI financials can be read as a ~$39B GAAP loss or an ~$8B cash loss depending on whether non-cash stock compensation is included; analysts disagree on which figure is most relevant for evaluating IPO prospects and index eligibility. [15][14] [15][14][1]
  • Altman said publicly OpenAI was not chasing Anthropic's IPO timeline, yet filed OpenAI's S-1 eight days after Anthropic's; he has since reportedly hinted at a listing 'within next year' [18] while a separate report placed the actual offering in 2027. [17] [11][19][17][18]
  • SpaceX's $85.7B total proceeds and strong first-day performance [7][5] partially undercut the Databricks CEO's claim that 2026 is 'a terrible year to go public,' though Anthropic's complications and OpenAI's uncertain listing timeline are consistent with the skeptical view. [7][5][33][17]
  • If the reported Q1 2026 OpenAI revenue of $5.7B [16] is accurate, it implies a run rate nearly double the 2025 annual figure — but revenue growth alone does not close the GAAP profitability gap S&P requires, and Hedgeye argued the labs' fundamentals don't support their valuations. [3][1] [16][3][1]
  • Anthropic is negotiating compute access from Microsoft's Maia 200 chip [22] while its existing compute relationships with Google and Amazon are disclosed as material in SpaceX's own IPO filings [9], creating potential tension between Anthropic's multi-cloud ambitions and its existing partner commitments ahead of its IPO. [22][9][34]

Sources

  1. [1] S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic — Ars Technica AI (2026-06-05)
  2. [2] S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on June 4, 2026, that it rejected proposed rule changes for faster S&P 500 inclu... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-05)
  3. [3] Hedgeye on X: "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P" / X — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  4. [4] SpaceX Finalizes IPO Price at $135 a Share in World's Largest ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  5. [5] SpaceX is now a public company valued for its AI potential, so what comes next? — Ars Technica AI (2026-06-12)
  6. [6] BREAKING: SpaceX closes 19% above IPO pricing on its first day of trading, immediately becoming the sixth-largest compan... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-14)
  7. [7] The biggest IPO in human history just happened and most people are still focused on the stock price when the real story … — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-06-20)
  8. [8] The official SEC filings of @SpaceX says AI accounts for almost all of its expected $28.5 trillion total addressable mar… — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-12)
  9. [9] SpaceX files S-1 IPO — reveals $1.25B/month compute deal with Anthropic — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-05-30)
  10. [10] SpaceX stock falls back to Earth🛬 — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-18)
  11. [11] BREAKING: WSJ reports OpenAI just made its first formal move toward IPO. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-08)
  12. [12] OpenAI confirms confidential S-1 filing with the SEC for an IPO but says no fixed timeline, noting it "may be a while" a... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  13. [13] Leaked financial docs show OpenAI is losing billions of dollars a year — Ars Technica AI (2026-06-16)
  14. [14] OpenAI’s 2025 financials show $13.07B revenue against $34B in spending and a $38.5B–$39B net loss as IPO preparations mo... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-16)
  15. [15] OpenAI Lost $39 Billion Last Year. Or $8 Billion. Same Spreadsheet. — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  16. [16] OpenAI burned through $3.7 billion in Q1 2026 — more than half of its $5.7 billion in revenue for the quarter. Both numb... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-21)
  17. [17] JUST IN: OpenAI now expected to go public next year, delaying earlier IPO timing. Market factor: shifting timeline could... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-10)
  18. [18] OpenAI IPO: Sam Altman Reportedly Reveals Timeline, Hints At ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  19. [19] Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC — Anthropic News (2026-06-01)
  20. [20] Anthropic files to go public - TechCrunch — reactive:anthropic-partnerships-expansion
  21. [21] Anthropic in talks to use Microsoft's AI chips, The Information reports — reactive:anthropic-rapid-ascent
  22. [22] Anthropic, Microsoft in talks about Maia AI chip deal — reactive:anthropic-rapid-ascent (2026-05-22)
  23. [23] $MSFT Microsoft's homegrown Maia 200 chip — launched in January 2026 on TSMC's 3nm process — is designed specifically fo... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-21)
  24. [24] The U.S. government ordered Anthropic to cut off all foreign nationals from its two most advanced AI models, Fable 5 and... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-16)
  25. [25] Anthropic walked into the White House Monday to argue its own models back into existence — two weeks after filing IPO pa... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-17)
  26. [26] Anthropic backs Trump's new AI Executive Order: voluntary frontier benchmarks, cyber hardening, industry co-op. Smart ti... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-17)
  27. [27] POLYMARKET ODDS OF AN OPENAI IPO BY DECEMBER 31, 2026 ARE NOW AT 71% — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  28. [28] S&P keeps door closed to mega-IPOs. The index provider will keep a 12-month seasoning rule and GAAP profitability te... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-04)
  29. [29] Perplexity just said it plans a 2028 IPO no matter how Anthropic, OpenAI, or SpaceX trade when they hit public markets. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-09)
  30. [30] Perplexity is sticking to its plan for a 2028 IPO as Anthropic and OpenAI race to market: CEO Aravind Srinivas said the ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  31. [31] Great job from the S&P 500 committee for staying firm on their positive net income rule. SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenA... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-05)
  32. [32] OpenAI's financials have leaked, showing $21B in losses against $13B in revenue — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-16)
  33. [33] 🟡 What your grandkids will remember — Semafor Technology (2026-06-10)
  34. [34] The Anthropic-Microsoft chip deal speculation continues to build. A deal would mark a significant strategic shift — Anth... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-21)
  35. [35] SpaceX is going public at a $1.75 trillion valuation. The world's biggest IPO ever. — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-05)
  36. [36] 🚀 Seguimiento SpaceX IPO: ~$26 mil millones/año solo de Google + Anthropic por compute en Colossus (S-1). — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-06)
  37. [37] @CryptoMilox OpenAI's prepping a confidential IPO filing with Goldman & Morgan Stanley right now, eyeing Sept 2026. ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-05-31)
  38. [38] OpenAI aiming for speedy IPO, source says - Reuters — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  39. [39] Anthropic just took the formal first step toward its IPO. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-01)
  40. [40] Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC — reactive:anthropic-rapid-ascent
  41. [41] 🚨 OpenAI confirms confidential IPO filing, no timeline set. $OPENAI https://t.co/Kf2lZw5RZL — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  42. [42] SpaceX plans to set IPO price at $135 per share, targeting ... - Reuters — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  43. [43] SPCX perp -27% as SpaceX IPO books run ~4x oversubscribed on a $1.8T valuation, demand vs target, pricing Thursday, tr... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-10)
  44. [44] SpaceX Stock | Hiive Price $151.27 | Invest or Sell — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  45. [45] FT: OpenAI is growing fast, but its numbers show how expensive frontier AI has become. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-16)
  46. [46] OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, With Spending Hitting ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets