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AI Company Public Market Access: S&P 500 Rejects SpaceX Fast-Track, Closing Path for OpenAI and Anthropic · history

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2026-06-13 19:09 UTC · 253 items

What

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11 and stock began trading June 13, completing what the New York Times described as the world's largest offering at approximately $75 billion raised. [7][8][9] The IPO price came in below the $151.27 level at which SpaceX shares had been trading on private secondary markets, suggesting institutional investors priced more conservatively than private buyers. [10] Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 on June 1 at a ~$965 billion valuation [14], and OpenAI filed its own confidential S-1 on June 8 with no fixed timeline. [18] S&P Dow Jones Indices rejected rule changes on June 4 that would have waived its GAAP profitability requirement, keeping all three companies out of the S&P 500 until they show sustained earnings. [1]

Why it matters

SpaceX's IPO, the first of the three AI-era companies to price, gives Anthropic and OpenAI a concrete comparable as they calibrate their own offering valuations and timelines. The discount to private-market prices suggests institutional caution at the AI-era infrastructure valuation range. Neither Anthropic nor OpenAI meets the S&P 500 profitability threshold, keeping roughly $30 trillion in passive index funds on the sideline for both. [1]

Open questions

  • How has SpaceX stock performed post-listing, and does that trajectory support or undercut the near-trillion-dollar valuations Anthropic and OpenAI are targeting? [9][7]

  • The $135 IPO price was below the $151.27 private secondary-market price on Hiive [10][8] — does that discount reflect AI-sector-wide institutional caution or SpaceX-specific factors?

  • Polymarket puts the odds of an OpenAI IPO completing by end of 2026 at 71%, but OpenAI itself says the offering 'may be a while' away [20][19] — which reflects reality, given SpaceX's pricing signal?

  • Will either Anthropic's or OpenAI's S-1 disclosures show a credible path to GAAP profitability — the requirement for eventual S&P 500 inclusion? [1][23]

Narrative

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on June 4, 2026 that it would not change its S&P 500 eligibility rules, rejecting proposals that would have waived the GAAP profitability requirement and shortened the seasoning window for newly listed companies. [1][2] The proposals had drawn criticism because SpaceX does not meet the existing standard of positive earnings in the most recent quarter and cumulatively over the prior four quarters. [3][4] Passive-investor advocates warned the proposed changes would coerce roughly $30 trillion in retirement funds into buying speculative IPO exposure; the S&P committee sided with them. [5] Nasdaq reportedly shortened its own seasoning window to 15 days and Russell/FTSE to five days, leaving unresolved which index pathway matters most for post-IPO passive-fund inclusion of AI companies. [6]

SpaceX finalized its IPO price at $135 per share on June 11, raising $75 billion in what the New York Times described as the world's largest offering, with stock beginning to trade on June 13. [7][8][9] The $135 price came in below the $151.27 at which SpaceX shares were trading on private secondary markets like Hiive ahead of the listing, suggesting institutional book-builders were more conservative than pre-IPO private buyers. [10] Retail investor access to shares remains uncertain. [11] SpaceX's S-1 had disclosed a compute arrangement with Anthropic and Google totaling roughly $26 billion per year. [12][13]

Two AI lab IPO processes are running concurrently behind SpaceX. Anthropic filed the first confidential S-1 on June 1, disclosing a $965 billion post-money valuation from its $65 billion Series H and annualized revenues tracking toward $45 billion. [14][15][16] A separate complication emerged with its Fable 5 model: enterprise customers pushed back on pricing, data retention practices, and cybersecurity restrictions, and Anthropic reversed a prior policy by retaining data from enterprise customer chats. [17] OpenAI filed its own confidential S-1 on June 8, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advising; the company stated no timeline is fixed and that an actual offering 'may be a while' away. [18][19] Polymarket contracts as of June 9 placed the odds of an OpenAI IPO completing by December 31, 2026 at 71%. [20]

Industry opinion on the IPO wave is divided. Wedbush Securities argued Anthropic's S-1 filing could open the IPO pipeline for the broader AI sector, a view OpenAI's filing within a week appeared to support. [21] Databricks CEO called 2026 'a terrible year to go public,' citing the compressed timeline among major AI offerings — a view the below-private-market SpaceX IPO price now gives some empirical grounding. [17] Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas is targeting a 2028 IPO and argues the next AI phase will favor compute efficiency over raw scale. [22]

Timeline

  • 2026-05-29: Passive-investor advocates warn proposed S&P 500 rule changes would force $30T in retirement funds to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. [5]
  • 2026-05-30: SpaceX files an S-1 for an IPO targeting ~$1.75T valuation, disclosing ~$26B/year in compute revenue from Google and Anthropic. [12][4][13]
  • 2026-05-31: Reports emerge that OpenAI is preparing a confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, targeting September 2026. [33][34]
  • 2026-06-01: Anthropic announces confidential S-1 submission to the SEC, disclosing a $965B valuation, $65B Series H, and annualized revenues tracking toward $45B. [14][25][15][16]
  • 2026-06-04: S&P Dow Jones Indices rejects proposed rule changes, maintaining 12-month seasoning and GAAP profitability requirements for S&P 500 inclusion. [2][24][1]
  • 2026-06-05: Fortune argues S&P exclusion does not fully protect retirement savers who may hold SpaceX via 401(k) vehicles outside the index. [32][23]
  • 2026-06-07: OpenAI reported to be preparing the largest ChatGPT redesign in the product's history, targeting transformation into a coding, agent, and business software superapp timed to precede its IPO. [27]
  • 2026-06-08: OpenAI files a confidential S-1 with the SEC; the company states no timeline is set and it 'may be a while' before an offering. [18][35][19][28][36]
  • 2026-06-09: Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas confirms a 2028 IPO target; Polymarket odds for OpenAI IPO by end of 2026 stand at 71%. [22][20][29]
  • 2026-06-10: Anthropic's Fable 5 draws enterprise backlash over a data retention policy reversal; Databricks CEO calls 2026 'a terrible year to go public.' [17]
  • 2026-06-11: SpaceX finalizes IPO price at $135 per share in what NYT describes as the world's largest offering ($75B raised); retail investor access remains uncertain. [7][8][11]
  • 2026-06-13: SpaceX stock begins trading; pre-listing secondary market price on Hiive had been $151.27, above the $135 IPO price. [9][10]

Perspectives

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Upheld existing S&P 500 eligibility rules on June 4, rejecting proposed changes that would have waived the profitability requirement and shortened the seasoning window.

Evolution: Consistent with historical standards; the outcome reversed what had been rumored as a possible accommodation for SpaceX.

[2][24][1]

SpaceX

Priced IPO at $135/share on June 11, raising $75B; stock began trading June 13, with the IPO price below the $151.27 private secondary-market level.

Evolution: Moved from S-1 filing to completed pricing; the below-private-market price is a new data point on institutional appetite.

[7][8][9][10]

Anthropic

Filed confidential S-1 on June 1 at a $965B valuation and ~$45B annualized revenue run rate; separately drew enterprise backlash over a Fable 5 data retention policy reversal.

Evolution: First formal public-market move; the Fable 5 controversy adds a complication for its enterprise customer relationships ahead of IPO.

[14][25][15][16][17]

Sam Altman / OpenAI

Filed confidential S-1 on June 8, stating no timeline is fixed and the offering 'may be a while' away; separately preparing a major ChatGPT superapp redesign timed to precede the listing.

Evolution: Moved from no stated IPO timeline to active S-1 filing within a week of Anthropic, while publicly downplaying competitive urgency.

[18][19][26][27][28]

Perplexity / Aravind Srinivas

Plans a 2028 IPO regardless of how Anthropic, OpenAI, or SpaceX trade; argues the next AI phase will penalize compute inefficiency.

Evolution: Consistent since first stated; positions Perplexity as deliberately outside the frontier-lab IPO rush.

[22][29][30]

Wedbush Securities

Argued Anthropic's S-1 filing could open the IPO pipeline for the broader AI sector.

Evolution: Consistent bullish framing; OpenAI's filing within a week supports the pipeline narrative, though SpaceX's below-private-market pricing is a test of that optimism.

[21][31]

Databricks CEO / industry skeptics

Called 2026 'a terrible year to go public,' citing the crowded AI IPO pipeline.

Evolution: SpaceX's IPO pricing below private secondary-market levels adds empirical weight to this skeptical view.

[17]

Hedgeye / CaridinaCapital / passive-investor advocates

Argued proposed S&P rule changes would coerce passive retirement funds into buying speculative companies at IPO valuations; praised the committee for holding its profitability rule.

Evolution: Alarm proved directionally correct; S&P rejected the changes they warned about.

[5][23]

Tensions

  • Hedgeye and passive-investor advocates argued proposed S&P rule changes would coerce retirement funds into speculative IPO exposure; S&P sided with them — but Fortune argues S&P exclusion still does not fully protect 401(k) investors who can hold SpaceX through non-index vehicles. [5][2][32]
  • Altman said publicly OpenAI was not chasing Anthropic's IPO timeline, yet OpenAI filed its own confidential S-1 eight days after Anthropic's filing. [26][18][14]
  • Wedbush frames the concurrent S-1 filings as opening IPO floodgates for AI; Databricks CEO argues 2026 is 'a terrible year to go public,' and SpaceX's pricing below private secondary-market levels adds a data point to the skeptics' case. [21][17][7][10]
  • Perplexity's Srinivas argues the next AI phase favors compute efficiency and a 2028 timeline, implicitly disagreeing with the frontier-lab posture that speed to public markets signals strength. [22][18][14]
  • S&P rejected rule changes while Nasdaq reportedly shortened its seasoning window to 15 days and Russell/FTSE to five days, leaving unresolved which index pathway matters most for post-IPO passive-fund inclusion of AI companies. [6][2][1]

Sources

  1. [1] S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic — Ars Technica AI (2026-06-05)
  2. [2] S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on June 4, 2026, that it rejected proposed rule changes for faster S&P 500 inclu... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-05)
  3. [3] @BitcoinCadet @Hedgeye No, SpaceX does not meet the key S&P 500 GAAP profitability rule (positive earnings in the mo... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-05-31)
  4. [4] SpaceX is going public at a $1.75 trillion valuation. The world's biggest IPO ever. — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-05)
  5. [5] Hedgeye on X: "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P" / X — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  6. [6] @fancy_financier @mgeri @Hedgeye **Yes, the rule changes are happening.** Nasdaq (15 days), Russell/FTSE (5 days fast en... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-05-30)
  7. [7] SpaceX Finalizes IPO Price at $135 a Share in World's Largest ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  8. [8] SpaceX plans to set IPO price at $135 per share, targeting ... - Reuters — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  9. [9] SpaceX IPO: The stock starts trading today. Early indications are ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  10. [10] SpaceX Stock | Hiive Price $151.27 | Invest or Sell — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  11. [11] SpaceX IPO explained: Price is set, but retail still up in the air - CNBC — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  12. [12] SpaceX files S-1 IPO — reveals $1.25B/month compute deal with Anthropic — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-05-30)
  13. [13] 🚀 Seguimiento SpaceX IPO: ~$26 mil millones/año solo de Google + Anthropic por compute en Colossus (S-1). — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-06)
  14. [14] Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC — Anthropic News (2026-06-01)
  15. [15] Anthropic files to go public - TechCrunch — reactive:anthropic-partnerships-expansion
  16. [16] Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC — reactive:anthropic-rapid-ascent
  17. [17] 🟡 What your grandkids will remember — Semafor Technology (2026-06-10)
  18. [18] BREAKING: WSJ reports OpenAI just made its first formal move toward IPO. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-08)
  19. [19] OpenAI confirms confidential S-1 filing with the SEC for an IPO but says no fixed timeline, noting it "may be a while" a... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  20. [20] POLYMARKET ODDS OF AN OPENAI IPO BY DECEMBER 31, 2026 ARE NOW AT 71% — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  21. [21] 📊 𝐈𝐍𝐕𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐑 𝐍𝐎𝐓𝐄: Wedbush Says Anthropic S-1 Could Open the IPO Floodgates - $SPCX — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-01)
  22. [22] Perplexity just said it plans a 2028 IPO no matter how Anthropic, OpenAI, or SpaceX trade when they hit public markets. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-09)
  23. [23] Great job from the S&P 500 committee for staying firm on their positive net income rule. SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenA... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-05)
  24. [24] S&P keeps door closed to mega-IPOs. The index provider will keep a 12-month seasoning rule and GAAP profitability te... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-04)
  25. [25] Anthropic just took the formal first step toward its IPO. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-01)
  26. [26] Altman says OpenAI isn't chasing an IPO timeline just because Anthropic filed. Translation: they'll go public when the n... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-01)
  27. [27] OpenAI is preparing its biggest ChatGPT redesign yet, before its IPO. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-07)
  28. [28] OpenAI confidentially files for IPO, prepping Wall Street for AI debut — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  29. [29] Perplexity is sticking to its plan for a 2028 IPO as Anthropic and OpenAI race to market: CEO Aravind Srinivas said the ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  30. [30] Perplexity CEO Maintains 2028 IPO Timeline, Cites AI Market Maturity Shift — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  31. [31] Anthropic Files S-1 Opening The IPO Floodgates, Analyst Says — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  32. [32] The S&P 500 will exclude SpaceX but Elon Musk is coming for your retirement savings anyway | Fortune — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  33. [33] @CryptoMilox OpenAI's prepping a confidential IPO filing with Goldman & Morgan Stanley right now, eyeing Sept 2026. ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-05-31)
  34. [34] OpenAI aiming for speedy IPO, source says - Reuters — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  35. [35] 🚨 OpenAI confirms confidential IPO filing, no timeline set. $OPENAI https://t.co/Kf2lZw5RZL — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  36. [36] OpenAI Files for US IPO a Week After Competitor Anthropic — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets