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AI Company Public Market Access: S&P 500 Rejects SpaceX Fast-Track, Closing Path for OpenAI and Anthropic · history

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2026-06-15 02:26 UTC · 319 items

What

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135/share on June 11, began trading on NASDAQ on June 12, and rose 19% on its first day to close at $160.95, making it the sixth-largest company by market cap at approximately $1.8 trillion. [8][9] SpaceX's SEC filings frame AI as the dominant component of a projected $28.5 trillion total addressable market. [12] Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 on June 1 at a ~$965 billion valuation [18] and OpenAI filed its own on June 8 [21]; one report now suggests OpenAI is targeting 2027 rather than late 2026 for its actual offering. [23] S&P Dow Jones Indices rejected rule changes on June 4 that would have waived GAAP profitability requirements, keeping all three companies out of the S&P 500 until they show sustained earnings. [1]

Why it matters

SpaceX's 19% first-day gain reframes the $135 IPO price as conservative rather than weak — the closing price of $160.95 exceeded the $151.27 pre-IPO Hiive secondary-market level, [8][7] giving Anthropic and OpenAI a more optimistic comparable than the IPO pricing alone suggested. A reported OpenAI delay to 2027 and the still-unresolved S&P 500 profitability bar mean passive funds remain sidelined from all three companies.

Open questions

  • Does SpaceX's 19% first-day pop change how Anthropic or OpenAI will price their own offerings, or is SpaceX's AI/rocket hybrid story too distinct a comparable? [8][12]

  • One report suggests OpenAI is now targeting 2027 for its actual offering [23], conflicting with Polymarket's 71% odds for a 2026 completion [24] — which reflects the actual timeline?

  • SpaceX's SEC filings assign AI nearly all of a $28.5T projected TAM [12] — as SpaceX trading matures, will public investors accept that framing or revert to pricing it primarily as a rocket and Starlink business?

  • Will either Anthropic's or OpenAI's S-1 disclosures show a credible path to GAAP profitability, the requirement for eventual S&P 500 inclusion? [1]

Narrative

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on June 4, 2026 that it would not change its S&P 500 eligibility rules, rejecting proposals that would have waived the GAAP profitability requirement and shortened the seasoning window for newly listed companies. [1][2] The proposals had drawn criticism because SpaceX does not meet the standard of positive earnings in the most recent quarter and cumulatively over the prior four quarters. [3][4] Passive-investor advocates warned the proposed changes would coerce roughly $30 trillion in retirement funds into buying speculative IPO exposure; the S&P committee sided with them. [5] Nasdaq reportedly shortened its own seasoning window to 15 days and Russell/FTSE to five days, leaving unresolved which index pathway matters most for post-IPO passive-fund inclusion of AI companies. [6]

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11 — below the $151.27 at which shares were trading on the Hiive secondary market [7] — and began trading on NASDAQ on June 12, rising more than 19% to close at $160.95. [8] That first-day close exceeded the pre-IPO secondary-market price, reversing the apparent institutional discount at pricing. SpaceX immediately became the sixth-largest company by market cap at approximately $1.8 trillion, and Elon Musk's personal stake was valued at more than $700 billion on paper. [8][9] Crypto perpetual contracts on platforms like Hyperliquid had priced SpaceX at roughly $162–165 ahead of the listing, and the IPO order book was reportedly approximately four times oversubscribed. [10][11] The perp contracts fell roughly 27% when the IPO priced at $135, [11] but the first-day close brought the stock back near the levels those derivative markets had anticipated.

SpaceX's investor story leans heavily on AI. Its SEC filings project a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, with AI accounting for nearly all of it. [12] A separate passage describes a $5.7 trillion near-term market across space, internet, mobile, AI, and advertising. [13] Gwynne Shotwell gave CNBC what was described as a detailed explanation of SpaceX's AI strategy distinct from its launch operations, while observers noted that many investors still process the company primarily as a rocket business. [14] Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire, a prominent SpaceX bull, centered his public investment thesis on Starlink's revenue growth from zero in late 2019. [15] SpaceX's S-1 also disclosed a compute arrangement with Anthropic and Google totaling roughly $26 billion per year. [16][17]

Two AI lab IPO processes run behind SpaceX. Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 on June 1 at a $965 billion valuation with annualized revenues tracking toward $45 billion, [18][19] but drew enterprise backlash over a Fable 5 data retention policy reversal. [20] OpenAI filed its own confidential S-1 on June 8, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advising, and stated that an actual offering 'may be a while' away. [21][22] One report from June 10 indicates OpenAI is now expected to go public in 2027, delaying from a previously discussed September 2026 target. [23] Polymarket contracts placed the odds of an OpenAI IPO completing by December 31, 2026 at 71% as of June 9, [24] a figure that may not yet reflect any timeline shift. Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas separately confirmed a 2028 IPO target and described himself as agnostic about the Anthropic and OpenAI filings. [25][26]

Timeline

  • 2026-05-29: Passive-investor advocates warn proposed S&P 500 rule changes would force $30T in retirement funds to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. [5]
  • 2026-05-30: SpaceX files an S-1 for an IPO targeting ~$1.75T valuation, disclosing ~$26B/year in compute revenue from Google and Anthropic. [16][4][17]
  • 2026-05-31: Reports emerge that OpenAI is preparing a confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, targeting September 2026. [37][38]
  • 2026-06-01: Anthropic announces confidential S-1 submission to the SEC, disclosing a $965B valuation, $65B Series H, and annualized revenues tracking toward $45B. [18][28][19][29]
  • 2026-06-04: S&P Dow Jones Indices rejects proposed rule changes, maintaining 12-month seasoning and GAAP profitability requirements for S&P 500 inclusion. [2][27][1]
  • 2026-06-05: Fortune argues S&P exclusion does not fully protect retirement savers who may hold SpaceX via 401(k) vehicles outside the index. [36][34]
  • 2026-06-07: OpenAI reported to be preparing the largest ChatGPT redesign in the product's history, targeting transformation into a coding, agent, and business software superapp timed to precede its IPO. [30]
  • 2026-06-08: OpenAI files a confidential S-1 with the SEC; the company states no timeline is set and it 'may be a while' before an offering. [21][39][22][40][41]
  • 2026-06-09: Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas confirms a 2028 IPO target; Polymarket odds for OpenAI IPO by end of 2026 stand at 71%. [25][24][31]
  • 2026-06-10: Anthropic's Fable 5 draws enterprise backlash over a data retention policy reversal; Databricks CEO calls 2026 'a terrible year to go public'; one report suggests OpenAI is now targeting 2027 for its actual listing. [20][23]
  • 2026-06-11: SpaceX finalizes IPO price at $135 per share; IPO order book reportedly approximately four times oversubscribed. [42][43][11]
  • 2026-06-12: SpaceX begins trading on NASDAQ, rising 19% to close at $160.95 — above the $151.27 pre-listing secondary-market price — immediately becoming the sixth-largest company by market cap at ~$1.8T. [8][9][7]

Perspectives

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Upheld existing S&P 500 eligibility rules on June 4, rejecting proposed changes that would have waived the profitability requirement and shortened the seasoning window.

Evolution: Consistent with historical standards; the outcome reversed what had been rumored as a possible accommodation for SpaceX.

SpaceX

IPO priced at $135/share on June 11 and rose 19% on the first trading day to $160.95; SEC filings project a $28.5T TAM with AI as the dominant component.

Evolution: Moved from S-1 filing to completed trading; the first-day close above private secondary-market levels reversed the apparent institutional discount at pricing.

Anthropic

Filed confidential S-1 on June 1 at a $965B valuation and ~$45B annualized revenue run rate; separately drew enterprise backlash over a Fable 5 data retention policy reversal.

Evolution: First formal public-market move; the Fable 5 controversy adds a complication for its enterprise customer relationships ahead of any offering.

Sam Altman / OpenAI

Filed confidential S-1 on June 8 with no fixed timeline; the offering 'may be a while' away, and a separate report suggests a 2027 target has replaced the earlier September 2026 date.

Evolution: Filed within a week of Anthropic while publicly downplaying urgency; a reported 2027 date would extend the previously discussed timeline further.

Perplexity / Aravind Srinivas

Plans a 2028 IPO and describes himself as agnostic about the Anthropic and OpenAI filings; argues the next AI phase will penalize compute inefficiency.

Evolution: Consistent since first stated; positions Perplexity as deliberately outside the frontier-lab IPO rush.

Wedbush Securities

Argued Anthropic's S-1 filing could open the IPO pipeline for the broader AI sector; OpenAI's filing within a week supported that narrative.

Evolution: Consistent bullish framing; SpaceX's 19% first-day gain further supports the optimistic case.

Databricks CEO / industry skeptics

Called 2026 'a terrible year to go public,' citing the crowded AI IPO pipeline.

Evolution: SpaceX's strong first-day performance partially undercuts this view, though a reported OpenAI delay to 2027 is consistent with it.

Hedgeye / passive-investor advocates

Argued proposed S&P rule changes would coerce passive retirement funds into buying speculative companies at IPO valuations; praised the committee for holding its profitability rule.

Evolution: Alarm proved directionally correct; S&P rejected the changes they warned about.

Tensions

  • SpaceX's first-day close of $160.95 exceeded the $151.27 Hiive secondary-market price, making the $135 IPO price look conservative rather than bearish — partially undercutting the Databricks CEO's claim that 2026 is 'a terrible year to go public.' [8][7][20]
  • SpaceX's SEC filings assign AI nearly all of a $28.5T projected TAM, but observers note that most investors still process SpaceX primarily as a rocket company — a gap Gwynne Shotwell's CNBC appearance attempted to close. [12][14]
  • Altman said publicly OpenAI was not chasing Anthropic's IPO timeline, yet OpenAI filed its own confidential S-1 eight days after Anthropic's filing; a separate report now suggests OpenAI's actual offering has shifted to 2027. [35][21][18][23]
  • Hedgeye and passive-investor advocates argued proposed S&P rule changes would coerce retirement funds into speculative IPO exposure; S&P sided with them — but Fortune argues S&P exclusion still does not fully protect 401(k) investors who can hold SpaceX through non-index vehicles. [5][2][36]
  • Perplexity's Srinivas argues the next AI phase favors compute efficiency and a 2028 timeline, disagreeing with the frontier-lab posture that speed to public markets signals strength. [25][21][18]

Sources

  1. [1] S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic — Ars Technica AI (2026-06-05)
  2. [2] S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on June 4, 2026, that it rejected proposed rule changes for faster S&P 500 inclu... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-05)
  3. [3] @BitcoinCadet @Hedgeye No, SpaceX does not meet the key S&P 500 GAAP profitability rule (positive earnings in the mo... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-05-31)
  4. [4] SpaceX is going public at a $1.75 trillion valuation. The world's biggest IPO ever. — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-05)
  5. [5] Hedgeye on X: "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P" / X — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  6. [6] @fancy_financier @mgeri @Hedgeye **Yes, the rule changes are happening.** Nasdaq (15 days), Russell/FTSE (5 days fast en... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-05-30)
  7. [7] SpaceX Stock | Hiive Price $151.27 | Invest or Sell — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  8. [8] SpaceX is now a public company valued for its AI potential, so what comes next? — Ars Technica AI (2026-06-12)
  9. [9] BREAKING: SpaceX closes 19% above IPO pricing on its first day of trading, immediately becoming the sixth-largest compan... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-14)
  10. [10] @InTeslaITrust @realdarkromance @WR4NYGov Current SpaceX pre-IPO perp (SPCX) on Hyperliquid trading ~$162-165 vs $135 IP... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-10)
  11. [11] SPCX perp -27% as SpaceX IPO books run ~4x oversubscribed on a $1.8T valuation, demand vs target, pricing Thursday, tr... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-10)
  12. [12] The official SEC filings of @SpaceX says AI accounts for almost all of its expected $28.5 trillion total addressable mar… — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-12)
  13. [13] SpaceX is positioning itsel on a $5.7T market across space, internet, mobile, AI, and advertising. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-10)
  14. [14] Gwynne Shotwell just gave CNBC the clearest explanation of what SpaceX's AI strategy actually is and most investors are … — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-06-12)
  15. [15] Shaun Maguire, partner at Sequoia Capital and one of the sharpest investors in this space, gave the most precise bull ca… — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-06-12)
  16. [16] SpaceX files S-1 IPO — reveals $1.25B/month compute deal with Anthropic — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-05-30)
  17. [17] 🚀 Seguimiento SpaceX IPO: ~$26 mil millones/año solo de Google + Anthropic por compute en Colossus (S-1). — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-06)
  18. [18] Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC — Anthropic News (2026-06-01)
  19. [19] Anthropic files to go public - TechCrunch — reactive:anthropic-partnerships-expansion
  20. [20] 🟡 What your grandkids will remember — Semafor Technology (2026-06-10)
  21. [21] BREAKING: WSJ reports OpenAI just made its first formal move toward IPO. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-08)
  22. [22] OpenAI confirms confidential S-1 filing with the SEC for an IPO but says no fixed timeline, noting it "may be a while" a... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  23. [23] JUST IN: OpenAI now expected to go public next year, delaying earlier IPO timing. Market factor: shifting timeline could... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-10)
  24. [24] POLYMARKET ODDS OF AN OPENAI IPO BY DECEMBER 31, 2026 ARE NOW AT 71% — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  25. [25] Perplexity just said it plans a 2028 IPO no matter how Anthropic, OpenAI, or SpaceX trade when they hit public markets. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-09)
  26. [26] Perplexity CEO confirms 2028 IPO timeline, 'agnostic' of OpenAI and Anthropic filings. With OpenAI eyeing $1T and Anthro... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-10)
  27. [27] S&P keeps door closed to mega-IPOs. The index provider will keep a 12-month seasoning rule and GAAP profitability te... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-04)
  28. [28] Anthropic just took the formal first step toward its IPO. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-01)
  29. [29] Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC — reactive:anthropic-rapid-ascent
  30. [30] OpenAI is preparing its biggest ChatGPT redesign yet, before its IPO. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-07)
  31. [31] Perplexity is sticking to its plan for a 2028 IPO as Anthropic and OpenAI race to market: CEO Aravind Srinivas said the ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  32. [32] 📊 𝐈𝐍𝐕𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐑 𝐍𝐎𝐓𝐄: Wedbush Says Anthropic S-1 Could Open the IPO Floodgates - $SPCX — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-01)
  33. [33] Anthropic Files S-1 Opening The IPO Floodgates, Analyst Says — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  34. [34] Great job from the S&P 500 committee for staying firm on their positive net income rule. SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenA... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-05)
  35. [35] Altman says OpenAI isn't chasing an IPO timeline just because Anthropic filed. Translation: they'll go public when the n... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-01)
  36. [36] The S&P 500 will exclude SpaceX but Elon Musk is coming for your retirement savings anyway | Fortune — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  37. [37] @CryptoMilox OpenAI's prepping a confidential IPO filing with Goldman & Morgan Stanley right now, eyeing Sept 2026. ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-05-31)
  38. [38] OpenAI aiming for speedy IPO, source says - Reuters — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  39. [39] 🚨 OpenAI confirms confidential IPO filing, no timeline set. $OPENAI https://t.co/Kf2lZw5RZL — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  40. [40] OpenAI confidentially files for IPO, prepping Wall Street for AI debut — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  41. [41] OpenAI Files for US IPO a Week After Competitor Anthropic — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  42. [42] SpaceX Finalizes IPO Price at $135 a Share in World's Largest ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  43. [43] SpaceX plans to set IPO price at $135 per share, targeting ... - Reuters — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets