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AI Company Public Market Access: S&P 500 Rejects SpaceX Fast-Track, Closing Path for OpenAI and Anthropic · history

Version 9

2026-06-17 02:15 UTC · 389 items

What

Three AI-adjacent companies are at different stages of going public: SpaceX completed its IPO on June 12 and trades at a ~$1.8T market cap [6][7]; Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 on June 1 at a ~$965B valuation [11] and faces new complications including a reported U.S. government restriction on foreign-national access to its Fable 5 model [14] and reported model delays [15]; OpenAI filed its S-1 on June 8 [16] but leaked financial documents published June 16 show its R&D costs alone ($19.18B in 2025) exceeded its total revenues ($13.07B), with total spending reaching roughly $34B against $13B in revenue. [19][20] S&P Dow Jones Indices rejected rule changes in early June that would have relaxed profitability requirements, keeping all three companies out of the S&P 500 until they show sustained GAAP earnings. [1]

Why it matters

The leaked OpenAI financials put a specific number on what the S&P 500 profitability bar requires OpenAI to close: R&D spending alone exceeded total revenue in 2025, meaning GAAP breakeven is not near-term. That gap is the structural reason passive funds managing roughly $30T in retirement assets remain on the sidelines from all three companies. [19][3]

Open questions

  • OpenAI's R&D alone ($19.18B) exceeded its total 2025 revenues ($13.07B) [19] — on what timeline, if any, can it reach the GAAP profitability required for S&P 500 inclusion? [1]

  • One report suggests OpenAI is targeting 2027 for its actual listing [18], while Polymarket placed 71% odds on a 2026 completion as of June 9 [21] — which reflects the actual timeline?

  • Does the reported U.S. government restriction on foreign-national access to Anthropic's Fable 5 [14] and reported model delays [15] affect Anthropic's disclosed valuation or IPO timeline?

  • SpaceX's SEC filings assign AI nearly all of a $28.5T projected TAM [8] — as trading matures, will public investors price SpaceX primarily as an AI company or revert to a rocket/Starlink valuation?

Narrative

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on June 4, 2026 that it would not change its S&P 500 eligibility rules, rejecting proposals that would have waived the GAAP profitability requirement and shortened the seasoning window for newly listed companies. [1][2] The proposals had drawn criticism because SpaceX does not meet the standard of positive earnings in the most recent quarter and cumulatively over the prior four quarters. Passive-investor advocates warned the proposed changes would coerce roughly $30 trillion in retirement funds into buying speculative IPO exposure; the S&P committee sided with them. [3] Nasdaq reportedly shortened its own seasoning window to 15 days and Russell/FTSE to five days, leaving unresolved which index pathway matters most for post-IPO passive-fund inclusion. [4]

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11 — below the $151.27 at which shares were trading on the Hiive secondary market [5] — and began trading on NASDAQ on June 12, rising more than 19% to close at $160.95. [6] That first-day close exceeded the pre-IPO secondary-market price, reversing the apparent institutional discount at pricing. SpaceX immediately became the sixth-largest company by market cap at approximately $1.8 trillion. [6][7] SpaceX's SEC filings project a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion with AI as the dominant component, and the company disclosed a compute arrangement with Anthropic and Google totaling roughly $26 billion per year. [8][9][10]

Two AI lab IPO processes run behind SpaceX. Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 on June 1 at a $965 billion valuation with annualized revenues tracking toward $45 billion, [11][12] but drew enterprise backlash over a Fable 5 data retention policy reversal. [13] Reports from mid-June add further complications: a social media account reported the U.S. government ordered Anthropic to restrict foreign-national access to Fable 5 and another advanced model, [14] and another report flagged that Anthropic delayed new AI model releases ahead of any offering. [15] OpenAI filed its own confidential S-1 on June 8, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advising, and stated that an actual offering 'may be a while' away. [16][17] One report from June 10 indicates OpenAI is now expected to go public in 2027, later than a previously discussed September 2026 target. [18]

Leaked OpenAI financial documents published June 16, obtained by journalist Ed Zitron and reviewed by the Financial Times, put specific numbers on the company's cost structure for the first time. [19] OpenAI's revenues grew from $3.7 billion in 2024 to $13.07 billion in 2025, but its R&D expenses alone reached $19.18 billion in 2025 — including $10.59 billion paid to Microsoft for compute — exceeding total revenues by a wide margin. Total spending reached roughly $34 billion against $13 billion in revenue. [20] These figures give concrete scale to the GAAP profitability gap that the S&P 500 eligibility rules require OpenAI to close before passive funds can hold it in index-tracking portfolios.

Timeline

  • 2026-05-29: Passive-investor advocates warn proposed S&P 500 rule changes would force $30T in retirement funds to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. [3]
  • 2026-05-30: SpaceX files an S-1 for an IPO targeting ~$1.75T valuation, disclosing ~$26B/year in compute revenue from Google and Anthropic. [9][29][10]
  • 2026-05-31: Reports emerge that OpenAI is preparing a confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, targeting September 2026. [30][31]
  • 2026-06-01: Anthropic announces confidential S-1 submission to the SEC, disclosing a $965B valuation, $65B Series H, and annualized revenues tracking toward $45B. [11][32][12][33]
  • 2026-06-04: S&P Dow Jones Indices rejects proposed rule changes, maintaining 12-month seasoning and GAAP profitability requirements for S&P 500 inclusion. [2][22][1]
  • 2026-06-07: OpenAI reported to be preparing the largest ChatGPT redesign in the product's history, targeting transformation into a coding, agent, and business software superapp ahead of its IPO. [34]
  • 2026-06-08: OpenAI files a confidential S-1 with the SEC; the company states no timeline is set and it 'may be a while' before an offering. [16][35][17]
  • 2026-06-09: Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas confirms a 2028 IPO target; Polymarket odds for OpenAI IPO by end of 2026 stand at 71%. [23][21][24]
  • 2026-06-10: Anthropic's Fable 5 draws enterprise backlash over a data retention policy reversal; Databricks CEO calls 2026 'a terrible year to go public'; one report suggests OpenAI is now targeting 2027 for its actual listing. [13][18]
  • 2026-06-11: SpaceX finalizes IPO price at $135 per share; IPO order book reportedly approximately four times oversubscribed. [36][37][38]
  • 2026-06-12: SpaceX begins trading on NASDAQ, rising 19% to close at $160.95 — above the $151.27 pre-listing secondary-market price — immediately becoming the sixth-largest company by market cap at ~$1.8T. [6][7][5]
  • 2026-06-15: Anthropic reportedly delays release of new AI models, raising questions about its product roadmap ahead of any IPO. [15]
  • 2026-06-16: Leaked OpenAI financial documents show 2025 revenues of $13.07B against R&D costs of $19.18B (including $10.59B paid to Microsoft), with total spending reaching ~$34B. [19][20]
  • 2026-06-16: Reports indicate the U.S. government ordered Anthropic to restrict foreign-national access to Fable 5 and another advanced model. [14]

Perspectives

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Upheld existing S&P 500 eligibility rules on June 4, rejecting proposed changes that would have waived the profitability requirement and shortened the seasoning window.

Evolution: Consistent with historical standards; leaked OpenAI financials showing R&D costs alone exceeding revenues confirm the scale of the gap the committee's decision left in place.

[2][22][1]

SpaceX

IPO priced at $135/share on June 11 and rose 19% on the first trading day to $160.95; SEC filings project a $28.5T TAM with AI as the dominant component.

Evolution: Moved from S-1 filing to completed trading; the first-day close above private secondary-market levels reversed the apparent institutional discount at pricing.

[6][7][8]

OpenAI / Sam Altman

Filed confidential S-1 on June 8 with no fixed timeline; a separate report suggests a 2027 target has replaced the earlier September 2026 date. Leaked financials show R&D costs alone ($19.18B) exceeded total 2025 revenues ($13.07B), with total spending of ~$34B.

Evolution: Filed within a week of Anthropic while publicly downplaying urgency; leaked documents now show the scale of losses against which any public-market valuation must be set.

[16][17][18][19][20]

Anthropic

Filed confidential S-1 on June 1 at a $965B valuation and ~$45B annualized revenue run rate; subsequently faced enterprise backlash over Fable 5 data policy, reported model delays, and a reported U.S. government restriction on foreign-national model access.

Evolution: First formal public-market move; subsequent complications add risk to the IPO narrative that was not visible at the time of filing.

[11][12][13][15][14]

Perplexity / Aravind Srinivas

Plans a 2028 IPO and describes himself as agnostic about the Anthropic and OpenAI filings; argues the next AI phase will penalize compute inefficiency.

Evolution: Consistent since first stated; positions Perplexity as deliberately outside the frontier-lab IPO rush.

[23][24][25]

Hedgeye / passive-investor advocates

Argued proposed S&P rule changes would coerce passive retirement funds into buying speculative companies at IPO valuations; praised the committee for holding its profitability rule.

Evolution: Alarm proved directionally correct; leaked OpenAI financials showing $34B in spending against $13B revenue now give a concrete illustration of the profitability gap they warned about.

[3][26][19]

Databricks CEO / industry skeptics

Called 2026 'a terrible year to go public,' citing the crowded AI IPO pipeline and market conditions.

Evolution: SpaceX's strong first-day performance partially undercut this view, but leaked OpenAI financials and Anthropic's reported complications are consistent with the skeptical case.

[13][19]

Tensions

  • OpenAI's leaked financials show R&D alone ($19.18B) exceeded 2025 revenues ($13.07B) [19], directly illustrating how far OpenAI is from the GAAP profitability S&P Dow Jones requires for index inclusion — the same standard passive-investor advocates defended when S&P rejected the rule changes. [1] [19][1][3]
  • SpaceX's first-day close of $160.95 exceeded the $151.27 Hiive secondary-market price, making the $135 IPO price look conservative — partially undercutting the Databricks CEO's claim that 2026 is 'a terrible year to go public,' though Anthropic's complications and OpenAI's reported 2027 delay are consistent with the skeptical view. [6][5][13][18]
  • SpaceX's SEC filings assign AI nearly all of a $28.5T projected TAM, but observers note that most investors still process SpaceX primarily as a rocket company — a framing gap Gwynne Shotwell's CNBC appearance attempted to close. [8][27]
  • Altman said publicly OpenAI was not chasing Anthropic's IPO timeline, yet OpenAI filed its own confidential S-1 eight days after Anthropic's filing; a separate report now suggests OpenAI's actual offering has shifted to 2027. [16][11][18]
  • Hedgeye and passive-investor advocates argued S&P exclusion protects retirement savers from speculative IPO exposure, but Fortune argues S&P exclusion still does not fully protect 401(k) investors who can hold SpaceX through non-index vehicles. [3][2][28]

Sources

  1. [1] S&P 500 rejects SpaceX, also blocking entry for OpenAI and Anthropic — Ars Technica AI (2026-06-05)
  2. [2] S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on June 4, 2026, that it rejected proposed rule changes for faster S&P 500 inclu... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-05)
  3. [3] Hedgeye on X: "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P" / X — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  4. [4] @fancy_financier @mgeri @Hedgeye **Yes, the rule changes are happening.** Nasdaq (15 days), Russell/FTSE (5 days fast en... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-05-30)
  5. [5] SpaceX Stock | Hiive Price $151.27 | Invest or Sell — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  6. [6] SpaceX is now a public company valued for its AI potential, so what comes next? — Ars Technica AI (2026-06-12)
  7. [7] BREAKING: SpaceX closes 19% above IPO pricing on its first day of trading, immediately becoming the sixth-largest compan... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-14)
  8. [8] The official SEC filings of @SpaceX says AI accounts for almost all of its expected $28.5 trillion total addressable mar… — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-12)
  9. [9] SpaceX files S-1 IPO — reveals $1.25B/month compute deal with Anthropic — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-05-30)
  10. [10] 🚀 Seguimiento SpaceX IPO: ~$26 mil millones/año solo de Google + Anthropic por compute en Colossus (S-1). — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-06)
  11. [11] Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC — Anthropic News (2026-06-01)
  12. [12] Anthropic files to go public - TechCrunch — reactive:anthropic-partnerships-expansion
  13. [13] 🟡 What your grandkids will remember — Semafor Technology (2026-06-10)
  14. [14] The U.S. government ordered Anthropic to cut off all foreign nationals from its two most advanced AI models, Fable 5 and... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-16)
  15. [15] BREAKING: Anthropic delays release of new AI models, raising questions about product roadmap and potential IPO timeline.... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-15)
  16. [16] BREAKING: WSJ reports OpenAI just made its first formal move toward IPO. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-08)
  17. [17] OpenAI confirms confidential S-1 filing with the SEC for an IPO but says no fixed timeline, noting it "may be a while" a... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  18. [18] JUST IN: OpenAI now expected to go public next year, delaying earlier IPO timing. Market factor: shifting timeline could... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-10)
  19. [19] Leaked financial docs show OpenAI is losing billions of dollars a year — Ars Technica AI (2026-06-16)
  20. [20] FT: OpenAI is growing fast, but its numbers show how expensive frontier AI has become. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-16)
  21. [21] POLYMARKET ODDS OF AN OPENAI IPO BY DECEMBER 31, 2026 ARE NOW AT 71% — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  22. [22] S&P keeps door closed to mega-IPOs. The index provider will keep a 12-month seasoning rule and GAAP profitability te... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-04)
  23. [23] Perplexity just said it plans a 2028 IPO no matter how Anthropic, OpenAI, or SpaceX trade when they hit public markets. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-09)
  24. [24] Perplexity is sticking to its plan for a 2028 IPO as Anthropic and OpenAI race to market: CEO Aravind Srinivas said the ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  25. [25] Perplexity CEO confirms 2028 IPO timeline, 'agnostic' of OpenAI and Anthropic filings. With OpenAI eyeing $1T and Anthro... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-10)
  26. [26] Great job from the S&P 500 committee for staying firm on their positive net income rule. SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenA... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-05)
  27. [27] Gwynne Shotwell just gave CNBC the clearest explanation of what SpaceX's AI strategy actually is and most investors are … — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-06-12)
  28. [28] The S&P 500 will exclude SpaceX but Elon Musk is coming for your retirement savings anyway | Fortune — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  29. [29] SpaceX is going public at a $1.75 trillion valuation. The world's biggest IPO ever. — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-05)
  30. [30] @CryptoMilox OpenAI's prepping a confidential IPO filing with Goldman & Morgan Stanley right now, eyeing Sept 2026. ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-05-31)
  31. [31] OpenAI aiming for speedy IPO, source says - Reuters — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  32. [32] Anthropic just took the formal first step toward its IPO. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-01)
  33. [33] Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC — reactive:anthropic-rapid-ascent
  34. [34] OpenAI is preparing its biggest ChatGPT redesign yet, before its IPO. — Rohan Paul Twitter (2026-06-07)
  35. [35] 🚨 OpenAI confirms confidential IPO filing, no timeline set. $OPENAI https://t.co/Kf2lZw5RZL — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-09)
  36. [36] SpaceX Finalizes IPO Price at $135 a Share in World's Largest ... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  37. [37] SpaceX plans to set IPO price at $135 per share, targeting ... - Reuters — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets
  38. [38] SPCX perp -27% as SpaceX IPO books run ~4x oversubscribed on a $1.8T valuation, demand vs target, pricing Thursday, tr... — reactive:ai-ipo-public-markets (2026-06-10)