The Information Machine

Leopold Aschenbrenner's AGI Timeline Thesis and Misread 13F Filing

Synthesis history

4 versions, newest first.

  1. Version 4 2026-05-24 02:34 UTC · 85 items

    The $5.5B AUM figure has solidified as the consensus across multiple new sources [^13113][^13120][^13122][^13123], making the previously highlighted $9.5B figure look like an outlier — likely a misreport of put notional…

  2. Version 3 2026-05-23 03:14 UTC · 63 items

    Bloom Energy's actual 2026 market performance is now extensively documented — a 23% single-day surge [^11828], $7.65B in 90-day contracts [^11829], and a 2 GW production capacity target [^11830] — providing live market …

  3. Version 2 2026-05-22 20:30 UTC · 36 items

    This pass substantially fills in the actual portfolio numbers and structure that were previously unknown: $9.5B AUM, specific put weights (SMH 14.94%, NVDA 11.4%, etc.), and crucially the long-side holdings — Bloom Ener…

  4. Version 1 2026-05-20 12:54 UTC · 3 items

    Leopold Aschenbrenner, a 24-year-old former OpenAI researcher, published a 165-page manifesto in 2024 arguing that the primary bottleneck to AGI is neither algorithms nor chips [^7368]. A subsequent SEC 13F filing revea…