The Information Machine

Leopold Aschenbrenner's AGI Thesis and Hedge Fund Success · history

Version 5

2026-05-01 20:46 UTC · 126 items

Narrative

As of May 1, 2026, the most significant development in the Aschenbrenner/Situational Awareness LP story is the transition from thesis to operational execution: IREN (Iris Energy), the Bitcoin miner most specifically analyzed by Bernstein and most closely associated with the fund's concentrated thesis, has published Q1 and Q2 FY26 results[1][2] and is now publicly targeting $3.4 billion in annualized AI cloud revenue by end of 2026, driven by a Microsoft contract.[3] The previously cited Bernstein prediction of a $3.7B AI cloud pivot[4] is thus tracking closely against management guidance. The specific vehicle is a 150,000 GPU fleet whose ramp is now the operational test of the entire thesis.[5] This moves the Situational Awareness investment thesis from a prediction that was being retroactively validated by analyst coverage into a live operational experiment with quarterly reporting milestones.

The institutional validation chorus has expanded further. S&P Global Market Intelligence published 'Bitcoin miners pivot to AI and HPC as cryptocurrency market slumps' in February 2026,[6] adding a third major institutional research provider — alongside Bernstein and Bloomberg — to the list of entities independently endorsing the core thesis Aschenbrenner deployed in 2024. AInvest published 'AI Infrastructure Race Drives Bitcoin Miners to Pivot to High Performance Computing,'[7] Yahoo Finance ran 'Forget Crypto — Bitcoin Miners Just Became America's AI...',[8] and FinTech.tv covered 'Bitcoin Mining vs AI Data Centers: The Race for Electricity.'[9] The mainstream saturation of the miner/AI infrastructure thesis is now complete across retail, institutional research, and financial media. A meaningful counterweight has emerged, however: Investor's Business Daily published 'Bitcoin Miners, Now AI Compute Leaders, Face Profitability Concerns,'[10] which specifically names IREN peer companies (Wulf, CoreZ, CIFR, Hut 8) and introduces Q1 2026 hash price and profitability data as a check against the bullish transition narrative. This is the first major outlet in the new batch to apply execution scrutiny rather than thesis endorsement.

The amplification cycle shows no signs of contraction. Medium now carries 'He Got Fired by OpenAI. Then Turned $225M into $5.5B in 12 months,'[11] recycling the maximum AUM figure to a new audience. Two additional LinkedIn posts are circulating the 'fired from OpenAI at 23' framing.[12][13] A new outlet, TheAGIClock, published 'He Was Fired by OpenAI at 23. Now His $1.5 Billion Fund Says AGI...'[14] — using the October 2025 $1.5B figure, indicating that the Fortune profile continues to seed new amplification cycles at a lower AUM anchor. A new Milk Road AI tweet[15] extends that outlet's coverage. The AUM confusion ($1.5B, $4.5B, $5.5B) remains active across all three figures simultaneously with no reconciling regulatory data available. Broader macro context from Goldman Sachs projects AI infrastructure investment exceeding $500B in 2026,[16] providing the demand-side underpinning for the entire miner pivot thesis, while The Economist frames OpenAI as facing a 'make-or-break year in 2026'[17] — a development with direct bearing on the AGI-by-2027 prediction at the center of the manifesto.

The structural picture is now bifurcated: the financial track has moved into live reporting mode with IREN quarterly results as the primary observable, while the intellectual track — whether Aschenbrenner's AGI timeline proves accurate — remains genuinely unresolved. The Economist's 'make-or-break year' framing for OpenAI and the S&P Global sober retrospective on generative AI funding[18] both complicate the straight-line extrapolation from current infrastructure investment to AGI timelines. The IBD profitability note introduces a new operational tension: miners may successfully pivot their revenue mix toward AI cloud while still struggling to generate returns on the capital expenditure required to build 150,000-GPU fleets. Whether IREN's Microsoft contract translates to actual margin improvement — rather than just revenue growth — will be the defining data point for Situational Awareness LP's core holding through 2026.

Timeline

  • 2024-06: Aschenbrenner publishes 'Situational Awareness,' a 165-page manifesto predicting AGI by 2027 and framing the GPT-2 to GPT-4 leap as proof of exponential AI progress [23][47][24][48]
  • 2024-07-02: Bill Gates publicly disagrees with Aschenbrenner's AGI-this-decade thesis in Fortune, representing early high-profile institutional skepticism of the manifesto's core timeline [46]
  • 2024: Aschenbrenner launches Situational Awareness LP with approximately $225 million in seed capital; initial Bitcoin miner position reported at approximately $100 million [49][20][24][50]
  • 2025-06: Fund reports approximately 47% returns in H1 2025, significantly outperforming broad markets [51]
  • 2025-10-08: Bernstein Research publishes analysis via CoinDesk identifying Bitcoin miners as key AI infrastructure partners amid power crunch; independently predicts IREN pivot to $3.7B AI cloud business [29][4][30]
  • 2025-10-08: Fortune publishes profile detailing how Aschenbrenner turned a 'viral AI prophecy into profit'; fund valued at approximately $1.5 billion at time of publication [42][52][53]
  • 2025-12-29: The Economist publishes 'OpenAI faces a make-or-break year in 2026,' adding a major institutional voice to the question of whether the AGI timeline thesis is on track [17]
  • 2026-02: S&P Global Market Intelligence publishes 'Bitcoin miners pivot to AI and HPC as cryptocurrency market slumps,' becoming the third major institutional research provider to validate the miner/AI infrastructure thesis [6]
  • 2026-02-11: 13F filing date per GuruFocus; Situational Awareness LP's quarterly holdings become public regulatory record, revealing a 24-stock concentrated portfolio with top-7 positions in power companies and Bitcoin miners [45][54][55]
  • 2026-03-05: Fortune reports on fund's strategy betting on power companies and Bitcoin miners as AI infrastructure plays; AUM described at multi-billion scale [49]
  • 2026-04-23: Social media accounts begin amplifying the fund's growth story, with $220-225M to $5.5B framing going viral [56]
  • 2026-04-28: International coverage picks up in French-language financial media and Chinese crypto commentary; robot2trade adopts explicit 'What Wall Street Missed' framing; skeptical voices emerge [57][58][59][39]
  • 2026-04-30: Viral peak: 13F filings indexed across 9+ financial data platforms; Yahoo Finance and ainvest publish 'Top 7 Holdings' pieces; retrospective evaluation ecosystem forms across EA Forum, Observer, Lawfare, AGI Friday Substack, and Reddit r/agi [45][60][61][62][63][31][64][36][65][37][55][66][44]
  • 2026-04-30: WSJ publishes 'Bitcoin Miners Thrive Off a New Side Hustle: Retooling Their Data Centers for AI,' marking mainstream newspaper validation of the core Aschenbrenner investment thesis [40]
  • 2026-05-01: Milk Road AI publishes thread framing Aschenbrenner's edge as rooted in direct engagement with alignment research; Reddit r/accelerate publishes 'Looking back at Situational Awareness'; HedgeFollow adds Situational Awareness LP to tracking platform [25][38][67][15]
  • 2026-05-01: IREN Q2 FY26 results published; IREN targets $3.4B in annualized AI cloud revenue by end of 2026 driven by Microsoft contract, with 150K GPU fleet as the execution vehicle — moving the thesis from analyst prediction to live quarterly reporting [26][3][2][1][5]
  • 2026-05-01: Investor's Business Daily publishes 'Bitcoin Miners, Now AI Compute Leaders, Face Profitability Concerns,' introducing the first major profitability scrutiny of the miner-to-AI-compute transition in the new item batch [10]
  • 2026-05-01: Medium, TheAGIClock, and new LinkedIn posts extend the viral amplification cycle; Medium carries the $5.5B figure while TheAGIClock uses the earlier $1.5B figure, sustaining the simultaneous multi-AUM circulation problem [11][14][12][13]

Perspectives

Market Fit (@AIMarketFit)

Strongly bullish on Aschenbrenner as emblematic of a broader pattern: ex-frontier AI researchers hold structural informational edges that traditional finance has not priced in; frames the $5.5B outcome as a signal for the entire category

Evolution: Consistent across multiple posts on April 30, 2026; remains a primary viral amplifier

Milk Road AI (@MilkRoadAI)

Promotional framing celebrating Aschenbrenner's predictive accuracy and investment success; specifically highlighting his direct engagement with alignment research as the origin of his investment edge

Evolution: Issued a second tweet as of May 1 (item 4670), extending the amplification cycle. The framing has stabilized around alignment research access rather than just scaling law analysis

IREN (Iris Energy) management

Actively executing the miner-to-AI-cloud transition thesis, targeting $3.4B annualized AI cloud revenue by end of 2026 via a Microsoft contract and a 150K GPU fleet buildout

Evolution: New voice this cycle. Previously IREN existed only as the subject of Bernstein analysis. Now the company itself is producing quarterly results and public guidance that either confirm or challenge the investment thesis on an observable schedule

Investor's Business Daily

Cautiously skeptical: acknowledges miners have become AI compute leaders but highlights profitability concerns for Q1 2026, naming specific companies (Wulf, CoreZ, CIFR, Hut 8) with hash price and margin pressure data

Evolution: New voice this cycle; the first major outlet to apply operational profitability scrutiny rather than narrative endorsement to the miner/AI pivot thesis

S&P Global Market Intelligence

Institutional validation of the miner/AI and HPC pivot thesis, contextualizing it against cryptocurrency market weakness as a structural forcing function for the transition

Evolution: New institutional voice this cycle, joining Bernstein as a major financial research provider independently endorsing the thesis. S&P Global's February 2026 timing predates the viral wave, indicating organic institutional convergence rather than reactive coverage

The Economist

Frames OpenAI as facing a make-or-break year in 2026, implying the AGI timeline thesis depends on OpenAI's continued progress — a conditional that introduces meaningful uncertainty into the 2027 prediction

Evolution: New voice this cycle; provides the most prominent mainstream editorial check on the AGI timeline thesis specifically as it relates to OpenAI's trajectory

Goldman Sachs

Macro bullish on AI infrastructure investment, projecting $500B+ in 2026 AI company capex — providing the demand-side underpinning for the entire power and miner thesis

Evolution: New voice this cycle in this thread context; Goldman's figure provides institutional macro validation of the infrastructure supercycle narrative without specifically referencing Aschenbrenner

Bernstein Research

Independent financial research validating the Bitcoin miner/AI infrastructure thesis at both sector and company level; $3.7B IREN ARR prediction now being tested against actual Q2 FY26 results

Evolution: Consistent. Bernstein's company-level IREN prediction is now verifiable against actual earnings, moving from forecast to falsifiable claim

EA Forum evaluators

Analytical and calibration-focused; 'How did Leopold do?' frames evaluation as prediction-scoring rather than financial success; now indexed on GreaterWrong mirror

Evolution: Consistent; EA Forum remains the most methodologically rigorous treatment, with the 2026 Q2 open thread and summary of Situational Awareness suggesting continued active engagement

Lawfare / national security analysts

Policy-focused; examines 'Obstacles to AGI by 2027' through a national security and AI governance lens

Evolution: Consistent; still the only voice introducing a policy dimension to the evaluation

Reddit communities (r/agi, r/accelerate)

Mixed retrospective; r/agi noted 'people thought these predictions were crazy'; r/accelerate running its own 'Looking back at Situational Awareness' thread

Evolution: Consistent with prior cycle; r/accelerate's explicitly pro-acceleration community orientation likely to produce more favorable retroactive verdict than EA Forum's calibration scoring

Mainstream viral amplifiers (Medium, LinkedIn, TheAGIClock)

Recycling the 'fired from OpenAI, turned $225M into billions' narrative across new platforms and audiences; no new analytical content

Evolution: New platforms this cycle: Medium at $5.5B figure, TheAGIClock at $1.5B figure, two new LinkedIn posts — collectively sustaining the viral circulation while deepening the AUM confusion

robot2trade (@robot2trade1)

Explicit 'What Wall Street Missed' framing positioning Aschenbrenner's success as evidence of information asymmetry between AI insiders and traditional finance

Evolution: The thesis this voice advances is now fully undermined: WSJ, Yahoo Finance, S&P Global, Goldman Sachs, Bernstein, and IBD are all publishing the same miner/AI infrastructure thesis — 'What Wall Street Missed' is an inaccurate description of the current state

Yahoo Finance / AInvest / FinTech.tv

Treating the Bitcoin miner/AI pivot as conventional financial wisdom; Yahoo Finance now headlining 'Forget Crypto — Bitcoin Miners Just Became America's AI...'

Evolution: The framing has shifted from 'miners are pivoting' to 'miners have become' — past tense adoption indicates the transition is now treated as accomplished fact rather than emerging trend

Tensions

  • IREN's $3.4B annualized AI cloud revenue target (driven by a Microsoft contract) is now a quarterly-reportable claim, but IBD's profitability concerns for the broader miner category raise the question of whether revenue growth translates to margin improvement — the thesis may be correct on top-line while failing on the returns that would justify Situational Awareness LP's concentrated position [3][2][1][5][10][4][30]
  • The 'informational edge' thesis is fully undermined as of May 2026: WSJ, Yahoo Finance, S&P Global, CoinDesk, Goldman Sachs, Bernstein, and IBD are all publishing the same Bitcoin miner/AI infrastructure thesis simultaneously — the contrarian insight that supposedly drove early outperformance is now consensus, raising the question of whether future returns will revert toward the mean [40][41][6][8][7][29][4][16][39][22]
  • AUM figures remain inconsistent across active circulation: $1.5B on LinkedIn and TheAGIClock, $4.5B in YouTube thumbnails, $5.5B on Medium and in the April 2026 viral wave — all simultaneously in active circulation — and the 13F filings track equity holdings but not total AUM, leaving the headline growth figure unverified by any regulatory data [14][12][13][11][42][43][20][44][45]
  • The Economist's 'make-or-break year' framing for OpenAI in 2026 introduces a specific conditional risk to the AGI-by-2027 thesis: if OpenAI's trajectory falters, the foundational scaling argument underlying Aschenbrenner's manifesto and investment rationale is directly challenged [17][23][46]
  • Whether Bernstein's $3.7B IREN prediction and IREN management's own $3.4B target are achievable with a 150K GPU fleet depends on contract execution, hardware delivery timelines, and power availability — none of which are confirmed in the quarterly filings reviewed, leaving the flagship thesis-stock as an open operational question [26][3][2][1][5][4][30]
  • The retrospective evaluation ecosystem remains split between communities likely to produce favorable verdicts (r/accelerate, r/agi) and communities doing rigorous calibration scoring (EA Forum's 'How did Leopold do?') — the broader AI discourse, including The Economist and S&P Global's sober generative AI funding retrospective, has not converged on whether Aschenbrenner's specific AGI-by-2027 predictions are tracking [38][37][31][32][33][18][17][36]

Sources

  1. [1] IREN Reports Q1 FY26 Results | IREN — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  2. [2] IREN Reports Q2 FY26 Results.pdf — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  3. [3] Iren targets $3.4B in annualized AI cloud revenue by end of 2026 as ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  4. [4] Bitcoin mining meltdown? Why IREN’s real future is in AI, according to Bernstein - DL News — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  5. [5] Can IREN's 150K GPU Fleet Drive $3.7B AI Cloud ARR Target in ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  6. [6] Bitcoin miners pivot to AI and HPC as cryptocurrency market slumps — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  7. [7] AI Infrastructure Race Drives Bitcoin Miners to Pivot to High ... - AInvest — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  8. [8] Forget Crypto — Bitcoin Miners Just Became America's AI ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  9. [9] Bitcoin Mining: AI Data Centers and the Race for Electricity — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  10. [10] Bitcoin Miners, Now AI Compute Leaders, Face Profitability Concerns | Investor's Business Daily — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  11. [11] He Got Fired by OpenAI. Then Turned $225M into $5.5B in 12 ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  12. [12] Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI Thesis: Powering the Next ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  13. [13] Meet Leopold Aschenbrenner. He got fired from OpenAI at ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  14. [14] He Was Fired by OpenAI at 23. Now His $1.5 Billion Fund Says AGI ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  15. [15] Milk Road AI — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  16. [16] Why AI Companies May Invest More than $500 Billion in 2026 — reactive:big-tech-q1-2026-cloud-earnings
  17. [17] OpenAI faces a make-or-break year in 2026 — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  18. [18] Generative AI funding: A sober retrospective and the trends shaping ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  19. [19] JUST IN: Leopold Aschenbrenner, the OpenAI safety researcher who got fired at 22, just grew a hedge fund from $225M to $... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-30)
  20. [20] JUST IN: Leopold Aschenbrenner, fired from OpenAI at 22, just grew a hedge fund from $225M to $5.5B in roughly one year. — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-30)
  21. [21] THIS NUMBER IS WILD: A 22-year-old got fired from OpenAI. One year later, he's reportedly running one of the best-perfor... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-30)
  22. [22] ANOTHER SIGNAL: The biggest edge in markets right now might be ex-frontier AI researchers. — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-30)
  23. [23] Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 24 year old who wrote a 165 page AGI manifesto, got it right on the money, and turned it into… — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-04-30)
  24. [24] This is Leopold Aschenbrenner and this clip is from before the hedge fund, before the 13F filings, he raised $225 millio… — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-04-30)
  25. [25] Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 24 year old who built a $5.5 billion fund by being right about AI earlier than almost everyon… — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-05-01)
  26. [26] IREN Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  27. [27] IREN Financial Reports | Quarterly Results & Investor Updates — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  28. [28] Bitcoin miners' power edge makes them key AI infrastructure players ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  29. [29] Bitcoin (BTC) Miners Emerge as Key AI Infrastructure Partners Amid Power Crunch: Bernstein — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  30. [30] Bernstein sees IREN pivoting from Bitcoin mining to $3.7B AI cloud ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  31. [31] How did Leopold do? Evaluating Situational Awareness's predictions — EA Forum — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  32. [32] How did Leopold do? Evaluating Situational Awareness's predictions — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  33. [33] AI predictions for 2026 — EA Forum — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  34. [34] Summary of Situational Awareness - The Decade Ahead — EA Forum — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  35. [35] Open thread: 2026 Q2 (April - June) — EA Forum — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  36. [36] AI Timelines and National Security: The Obstacles to AGI by 2027 | Lawfare — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  37. [37] 2 years ago, people thought these AI 2027 predictions were crazy — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  38. [38] Looking back at 'Situational Awareness'... : r/accelerate - Reddit — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  39. [39] Decoding the $5.5B AI Infrastructure Portfolio — What Leopold Aschenbrenner Sees That Wall Street Missed — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-28)
  40. [40] Bitcoin Miners Thrive Off a New Side Hustle: Retooling Their Data ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  41. [41] Why Bitcoin miners' AI pivot could be the boon they need — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  42. [42] How former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner turned a viral AI prophecy into profit, with a $1.5 billion hedge fund and outsize influence from Silicon Valley to D.C. | Fortune — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  43. [43] This 24-Year-Old's $4.5B Bet on AI's Real Problem (Leopold ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  44. [44] Situational Awareness 13F Shows $5.5B Bet on Bitcoin Miners and AI Power | Stephanie Soquet — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  45. [45] Situational Awareness Current Portfolio, 13F Holdings (2026-02-11) — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  46. [46] Bill Gates disagrees with a former OpenAI researcher who sees AGI this decade | Fortune — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  47. [47] Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI Manifesto: AGI by 2027 - LinkedIn — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  48. [48] Introduction - SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  49. [49] Leopold Aschenbrenner’s hedge fund is betting on power and Bitcoin miners to fuel the AI boom | Fortune — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  50. [50] 24-Year-Old Former OpenAI Researcher Bets $100 Million on Bitcoin Miners for AI Infrastructure | KuCoin — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  51. [51] A 24-year-old got fired from OpenAI two years ago. He started a hedge fund. In the first half of 2025 it returned 47% wh... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-30)
  52. [52] The improbable $1.5B AGI bet of a 23-year-old ex–OpenAI researcher — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  53. [53] How a 23-year-old former OpenAI researcher turned a viral AI prophecy into profit, with a $1.5 billion hedge fund and outsize influence from Silicon Valley to D.C. — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  54. [54] Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Fund: Top 7 Holdings — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  55. [55] Artificial Intelligence (AI) Prodigy Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Fund Owns Only 24 Stocks. These Are the Top 7 Holdings. — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  56. [56] 24-year-old Leopold Aschenbrenner runs Situational Awareness, a hedge fund he launched in 2024 with $220 million. He was... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-23)
  57. [57] Leopold Aschenbrenner est le gérant de Situational Awareness LP, un hedge fund de plusieurs milliards de dollars dans la... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-28)
  58. [58] @MikeIsaac Remember that guy Leopold Aschenbrenner... the former OpenAI guy who started a 'hedge fund' with the usual su... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-28)
  59. [59] Leopold Aschenbrenner(前 OpenAI 研究员,其撰写的《Situational Awareness》被视为 AI Scaling 派系的圣经)大举押注这几只股票,逻辑非常纯粹:他在赌 AGI(通用人工智能)的物理极... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-30)
  60. [60] Situational Awareness LP 13F Filings — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  61. [61] SITUATIONAL AWARENESS LP Top 13F Holdings — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  62. [62] Situational Awareness LP Portfolio Holdings - Fintel — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  63. [63] Situational Awareness Fund Performance History & Annualized Return — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  64. [64] AI 2027 Forecast Revisited: AGI vs Real-World Disruption | Observer — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  65. [65] Retrospective Book Review: Situational Awareness — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  66. [66] SITUATIONAL AWARENESS LP Institutional Portfolio | Nasdaq — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  67. [67] Situational Awareness Portfolio | Leopold Aschenbrenner 13F Holdings & Trades — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis