The Information Machine

Leopold Aschenbrenner's AGI Thesis and Hedge Fund Success · history

Version 6

2026-05-02 05:25 UTC · 159 items

Narrative

As of May 2, 2026, the IREN/Situational Awareness operational story has become more concrete on two fronts simultaneously: the execution milestone is more specific, and the portfolio strategy has evolved in ways not previously captured. IREN's Q2 FY26 results, published on GlobeNewswire and covered by Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance, and MSN, confirm $3.6 billion in GPU financing secured for the Microsoft contract[1][2] — a slight upward revision from the $3.4B ARR target cited in prior reporting, and with a GPU fleet now specified at 140,000 units[3] rather than the 150,000 figure from earlier analyst coverage. The $3.6B secured financing is the most concrete execution milestone yet: it transitions IREN from 'targeting' a revenue figure to having financial commitments in place to build toward it. Microsoft's own FY26 Q2 Intelligent Cloud performance data is available as a demand-side cross-reference for the contract.[4] The GlobeNewswire URL dates these results to February 5, 2026, clarifying that the Q2 FY26 results entered the synthesis pipeline in May but were published three months earlier — meaning the thesis has now been in live operational testing longer than the previous synthesis implied.

The most strategically significant new development is outside the IREN story: mlq.ai has published an analysis of Situational Awareness LP's Q4 2025 13F filing under the title 'Exiting Chip Giants, Scaling the Compute Layer,'[5] indicating that the fund rotated out of semiconductor positions during Q4 2025 while concentrating further in physical compute infrastructure. GuruFocus,[6] Quiver Quantitative,[7] and Pablo Stafforini's notes[8] are all now actively tracking the portfolio, creating a multi-platform regulatory data layer that makes future rotations visible with minimal delay. If the chip giant exit characterization is accurate, Aschenbrenner appears to have made a deliberate shift away from direct beneficiaries of AI chip demand toward the power and infrastructure layer — either on a valuation judgment that semiconductor names had run ahead of fundamentals, or a conviction that the next leg of the trade lies in compute infrastructure rather than in Nvidia-adjacent names. The specific names sold, the timing, and whether the rotation is complete are not confirmed by the 13F data alone.

The analyst landscape is now explicitly bifurcated within the miner/AI pivot story. Bernstein has hiked Bitcoin miner price targets as AI infrastructure plays,[9] reinforcing its October 2025 thesis with updated price targets. Simultaneously, a separate group of Wall Street analysts has cut price targets specifically on Cipher Mining (CIFR) and TeraWulf (WULF),[10] two of the names IBD flagged for profitability concerns in the previous cycle. CoinShares published its comprehensive Q1 2026 Bitcoin Mining Report[11] — framed by Insights4VC Substack as a '2026 Thesis Update' for the mining/AI pivot[12] — providing systematic sector data on hash rate, profitability, and AI hosting transitions. The combined picture is of a sector where the structural thesis (miners as AI infrastructure) is now consensus but execution quality is determining which specific names benefit. Phemex and Seeking Alpha have both published long-form pieces on the transformation of Bitcoin mining into AI hosting,[13][14] while Instagram reels specifically promoting CIFR as a miner pivoting to AI data centers[15] show the thesis has reached retail social media saturation.

The policy and intellectual ecosystem around AGI timelines has expanded significantly in this cycle. Lawfare has now hosted a podcast and article featuring Daniel Kokotajlo and Eli Lifland discussing their 'AI 2027 Report,'[16][17] a direct parallel to Aschenbrenner's 2027 prediction by another former OpenAI researcher who also departed over safety concerns. RAND Corporation published 'The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security,'[18] elevating AGI timeline discourse from legal/policy analysis to full strategic studies treatment. Two additional Lawfare pieces — one on preparing national security officials for AI challenges[19] and one on narrowing national security exceptions to federal AI guardrails[20] — extend the policy discourse in directions that directly intersect with the national security framing of Aschenbrenner's original manifesto. The amplification cycle continues: MilkRoadAI issued another tweet[21] and a Financial Guru Twitter account used Gemini to generate a financial metrics table about Aschenbrenner,[22] representing a meta-development where AI tools are now being deployed to amplify analysis of an AI-thesis fund.

Timeline

  • 2024-06: Aschenbrenner publishes 'Situational Awareness,' a 165-page manifesto predicting AGI by 2027 and framing the GPT-2 to GPT-4 leap as proof of exponential AI progress [27][69][28][70][71]
  • 2024-07-02: Bill Gates publicly disagrees with Aschenbrenner's AGI-this-decade thesis in Fortune, representing early high-profile institutional skepticism of the manifesto's core timeline [72]
  • 2024: Aschenbrenner launches Situational Awareness LP with approximately $225 million in seed capital; initial Bitcoin miner position reported at approximately $100 million [73][24][28][74]
  • 2025-06: Fund reports approximately 47% returns in H1 2025, significantly outperforming broad markets [75]
  • 2025-10-08: Bernstein Research publishes analysis via CoinDesk identifying Bitcoin miners as key AI infrastructure partners amid power crunch; independently predicts IREN pivot to $3.7B AI cloud business [36][37][38]
  • 2025-10-08: Fortune publishes profile detailing how Aschenbrenner turned a 'viral AI prophecy into profit'; fund valued at approximately $1.5 billion at time of publication [65][76][77]
  • 2025-Q4: Situational Awareness LP exits chip giant positions (large-cap semiconductor names) and scales the compute infrastructure layer, per mlq.ai analysis of Q4 2025 13F filing — a significant portfolio rotation not previously captured in synthesis [5][6][7]
  • 2025-12-29: The Economist publishes 'OpenAI faces a make-or-break year in 2026,' adding a major institutional voice to the question of whether the AGI timeline thesis is on track [44]
  • 2026-02: S&P Global Market Intelligence publishes 'Bitcoin miners pivot to AI and HPC as cryptocurrency market slumps,' becoming the third major institutional research provider to validate the miner/AI infrastructure thesis [42]
  • 2026-02-05: IREN Reports Q2 FY26 Results: $3.6B GPU financing secured for Microsoft contract, 140k GPU fleet expansion, $3.4B ARR target by end of 2026 confirmed; covered by GlobeNewswire, Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance, and MSN [1][3][31][32][33][2]
  • 2026-02: Bernstein hikes Bitcoin miner price targets as AI infrastructure play, reinforcing its October 2025 bullish thesis with updated targets [9]
  • 2026-02: Wall Street analysts cut price targets on Cipher Mining (CIFR) and TeraWulf (WULF), introducing within-sector differentiation as execution quality diverges among miners [10]
  • 2026-02: CoinShares publishes Bitcoin Mining Report Q1 2026, providing systematic sector data on hash rate, profitability, and AI hosting pivot across the mining industry [40][41][11][12]
  • 2026-02-11: 13F filing date per GuruFocus; Situational Awareness LP's quarterly holdings become public regulatory record, tracked across GuruFocus, Quiver Quantitative, and Pablo Stafforini's notes [68][78][79][6][8][7]
  • 2026-03-05: Fortune reports on fund's strategy betting on power companies and Bitcoin miners as AI infrastructure plays; AUM described at multi-billion scale [73]
  • 2026-04-23: Social media accounts begin amplifying the fund's growth story, with $220-225M to $5.5B framing going viral [80]
  • 2026-04-28: International coverage picks up in French-language financial media and Chinese crypto commentary; robot2trade adopts explicit 'What Wall Street Missed' framing; skeptical voices emerge [81][82][83][60]
  • 2026-04-30: Viral peak: 13F filings indexed across 9+ financial data platforms; Yahoo Finance and ainvest publish 'Top 7 Holdings' pieces; retrospective evaluation ecosystem forms across EA Forum, Observer, Lawfare, AGI Friday Substack, and Reddit r/agi [68][84][85][86][87][46][88][53][89][54][79][90][67]
  • 2026-04-30: WSJ publishes 'Bitcoin Miners Thrive Off a New Side Hustle: Retooling Their Data Centers for AI,' marking mainstream newspaper validation of the core Aschenbrenner investment thesis [61]
  • 2026-05-01: Milk Road AI publishes thread framing Aschenbrenner's edge as rooted in direct engagement with alignment research; Reddit r/accelerate publishes 'Looking back at Situational Awareness'; HedgeFollow adds Situational Awareness LP to tracking platform [29][55][91][30]
  • 2026-05-01: Investor's Business Daily publishes 'Bitcoin Miners, Now AI Compute Leaders, Face Profitability Concerns,' introducing the first major profitability scrutiny of the miner-to-AI-compute transition [34]
  • 2026-05-01: Medium, TheAGIClock, and new LinkedIn posts extend the viral amplification cycle; Medium carries the $5.5B figure while TheAGIClock uses the earlier $1.5B figure, sustaining simultaneous multi-AUM circulation [56][57][58][59]
  • 2026-05-02: Lawfare publishes Daniel Kokotajlo and Eli Lifland interview on their 'AI 2027 Report,' creating a parallel prediction framework by another former OpenAI safety researcher; RAND publishes 'The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security' [16][18][17][19][20]
  • 2026-05-02: MilkRoadAI issues another tweet on Aschenbrenner; Financial Guru uses Gemini to generate a financial metrics table about the fund, extending the AI-assisted amplification cycle [21][22]

Perspectives

Market Fit (@AIMarketFit)

Strongly bullish on Aschenbrenner as emblematic of a broader pattern: ex-frontier AI researchers hold structural informational edges that traditional finance has not priced in; frames the $5.5B outcome as a signal for the entire category

Evolution: Consistent across multiple posts on April 30, 2026; remains a primary viral amplifier

[23][24][25][26]

Milk Road AI (@MilkRoadAI)

Promotional framing celebrating Aschenbrenner's predictive accuracy and investment success; specifically highlighting his direct engagement with alignment research as the origin of his investment edge

Evolution: Issued a third tweet as of May 2 (item 5069), continuing to amplify the '24-year-old who wrote a 165-page AGI document' framing. The core message is stable across multiple posting cycles.

[27][28][29][30][21]

IREN (Iris Energy) management

Actively executing the miner-to-AI-cloud transition thesis: $3.6B in GPU financing secured for Microsoft contract, targeting $3.4B ARR by end of 2026 via a 140k GPU fleet

Evolution: The GPU financing has moved from 'targeted' to 'secured,' and the GPU count is specified as 140k in Q2 FY26 results (vs. 150k in earlier analyst coverage). The operational execution is advancing on disclosed schedule per company guidance.

[1][3][31][32][33][2]

Investor's Business Daily

Cautiously skeptical: acknowledges miners have become AI compute leaders but highlights profitability concerns for Q1 2026, naming specific companies (Wulf, CoreZ, CIFR, Hut 8) with hash price and margin pressure data

Evolution: Consistent from prior cycle; its profitability concerns are now reinforced by Wall Street analyst target cuts on CIFR and WULF specifically (item 4914), validating the underlying skepticism

[34][10]

Bernstein Research

Raised Bitcoin miner price targets as AI infrastructure plays, reinforcing its October 2025 bullish thesis with updated estimates

Evolution: Upgraded its position: moved from prediction (October 2025) to active target hikes (February 2026), while the broader analyst community is cutting specific names. Bernstein appears to be differentiating by backing sector leaders rather than uniformly endorsing the category.

[35][36][37][38][9]

Wall Street analyst consensus (non-Bernstein)

Cutting price targets on Cipher Mining (CIFR) and TeraWulf (WULF), signaling that the miner/AI pivot thesis does not uniformly benefit all names and that execution quality is now the key differentiator

Evolution: New voice this cycle. The emergence of analyst target cuts alongside Bernstein's hikes creates an explicit within-sector divergence — the thesis has become sufficiently mainstream that analysts are now differentiating rather than uniformly endorsing

[10][39]

CoinShares

Systematic sector research on Bitcoin mining's Q1 2026 state; the framing 'Have Bitcoin Miners Reached Their [Peak/Inflection]?' suggests a more measured assessment of the AI pivot thesis than the bullish consensus

Evolution: New institutional voice this cycle with a comprehensive Q1 2026 report. The German-language version (item 4909) indicates CoinShares is addressing a European institutional audience, broadening the geographic scope of sector analysis

[40][41][11]

mlq.ai / portfolio trackers (GuruFocus, Quiver Quantitative, Pablo Stafforini)

Documenting a significant Q4 2025 portfolio rotation: Situational Awareness LP exited chip giant positions and scaled the compute layer, suggesting a deliberate tactical shift away from semiconductor direct beneficiaries toward physical AI infrastructure

Evolution: New intelligence this cycle. Previous synthesis tracked the portfolio as a static 24-stock concentrated position; the Q4 2025 chip giant exit represents a material new portfolio development. Multiple tracking platforms are now independently verifying the same 13F data.

[5][6][8][7]

Daniel Kokotajlo & Eli Lifland / Lawfare

Published an 'AI 2027 Report' examining AI capability timelines, with Lawfare providing a national security policy forum for their predictions — directly parallel to Aschenbrenner's manifesto structure from a fellow ex-OpenAI researcher who also departed over safety concerns

Evolution: New voice this cycle. Kokotajlo's departure from OpenAI over safety concerns parallels Aschenbrenner's, and his public AI 2027 prediction creates a parallel prediction ecosystem that could either reinforce or challenge Aschenbrenner's specific timeline claims depending on content

[16][17]

RAND Corporation

Published 'The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security,' treating AGI timeline questions as matters of strategic national security concern at the highest level of U.S. policy research

Evolution: New voice this cycle. RAND's entry elevates the policy discourse from Lawfare's legal/analytical treatment to full-spectrum strategic studies, indicating that AGI timeline questions have penetrated the U.S. defense policy research establishment

[18]

S&P Global Market Intelligence

Institutional validation of the miner/AI and HPC pivot thesis, contextualizing it against cryptocurrency market weakness as a structural forcing function for the transition

Evolution: Consistent from prior cycle

[42][43]

The Economist

Frames OpenAI as facing a make-or-break year in 2026, implying the AGI timeline thesis depends on OpenAI's continued progress — a conditional that introduces meaningful uncertainty into the 2027 prediction

Evolution: Consistent from prior cycle

[44]

Goldman Sachs

Macro bullish on AI infrastructure investment, projecting $500B+ in 2026 AI company capex — providing the demand-side underpinning for the entire power and miner thesis

Evolution: Consistent from prior cycle

[45]

EA Forum evaluators / LessWrong

Analytical and calibration-focused; 'How did Leopold do?' frames evaluation as prediction-scoring rather than financial success; LessWrong summary and EA Forum response continue to circulate for new audiences

Evolution: Consistent; LessWrong summary (item 5072) and EA Forum response (item 5070) both resurface this cycle, suggesting the rationalist community remains actively engaged with the manifesto nearly two years after publication

[46][47][48][49][50][51][52]

Lawfare / national security analysts

Policy-focused; examining AI timeline implications through national security and AI governance lenses, with new content spanning national security official preparation, AI guardrail narrowing, and the Kokotajlo/Lifland AI 2027 Report

Evolution: Significantly expanded this cycle: from a single 'Obstacles to AGI by 2027' piece to a multi-article cluster — the policy discourse has broadened from obstacle analysis to active preparation of national security officials

[53][19][16][20][17]

Reddit communities (r/agi, r/accelerate)

Mixed retrospective; r/agi noted 'people thought these predictions were crazy'; r/accelerate running its own 'Looking back at Situational Awareness' thread

Evolution: Consistent with prior cycle

[54][55]

Mainstream viral amplifiers (Medium, LinkedIn, TheAGIClock, Instagram, Twitter)

Recycling the 'fired from OpenAI, turned $225M into billions' narrative across new platforms; an Instagram reel specifically promotes CIFR as a miner pivoting to AI data centers; a Financial Guru account uses Gemini to generate financial metrics tables about Aschenbrenner

Evolution: New platforms this cycle: Instagram (item 4910) adds a visual social media vector for the miner/AI pivot story, and AI-generated analysis tables (item 5068) represent a meta-development where AI tools are deployed to amplify coverage of an AI-thesis fund

[56][57][58][59][15][22][21]

robot2trade (@robot2trade1)

Explicit 'What Wall Street Missed' framing positioning Aschenbrenner's success as evidence of information asymmetry between AI insiders and traditional finance

Evolution: Fully undermined by current conditions: WSJ, Yahoo Finance, S&P Global, Goldman Sachs, Bernstein, and IBD are all publishing the same miner/AI infrastructure thesis; Wall Street is not 'missing' anything — it has simultaneously hiked (Bernstein) and cut (CIFR/WULF) targets within the same sector in the same cycle

[60][61][62][36][42][63][9][10]

Tensions

  • The Q4 2025 chip giant exit is materially unverified: mlq.ai's 'Exiting Chip Giants, Scaling the Compute Layer' characterization is an analytical interpretation of 13F data, but the specific names sold, the timing, and whether the rotation is complete are unknown — 13F filings track equity long positions only, not shorts, derivatives, or timing within a quarter [5][6][8][7]
  • IREN's GPU count has shifted between coverage cycles: 150k GPUs in earlier analyst coverage vs. 140k in Q2 FY26 results — a 7% discrepancy that may reflect a revised contract scope, different counting methodology, or reporting inconsistency, but is material for whether the $3.4B ARR target is achievable on the disclosed fleet [1][3][64][31]
  • The analyst community is now explicitly bifurcated within the miner/AI thesis: Bernstein is hiking miner targets broadly as an AI infrastructure play while other Wall Street analysts are cutting price targets specifically on CIFR and WULF — creating simultaneous buy and sell signals within the same sector thesis, with no public confirmation of which names Situational Awareness LP holds at what weight after the Q4 2025 rotation [9][10][39][34]
  • The Kokotajlo/Lifland 'AI 2027 Report' creates a parallel prediction framework by another former OpenAI safety researcher — if their specific timeline predictions diverge from Aschenbrenner's, it would signal that even the community of ex-OpenAI safety researchers has not converged on a single AGI timeline, complicating the 'informational edge from safety research access' narrative [16][18][17][27]
  • IREN's $3.6B GPU financing is secured but not yet deployed: financing commitments differ from revenue, and CoinShares' Q1 2026 sector data and IBD profitability analysis both indicate that the broader miner category faces hash price and margin pressure — the question of whether IREN's Microsoft contract translates to actual net income improvement rather than top-line revenue growth remains open [1][2][11][34][37]
  • AUM figures remain inconsistent across active circulation: $1.5B on LinkedIn and TheAGIClock, $4.5B in YouTube thumbnails, $5.5B on Medium and in the April 2026 viral wave — all simultaneously in active circulation — and the 13F filings track equity holdings but not total AUM, leaving the headline growth figure unverified by any regulatory data [57][58][59][56][65][66][24][67][68]
  • The retrospective evaluation ecosystem remains split: rationalist communities (EA Forum, LessWrong) are calibration-scoring the manifesto's predictions, while mainstream amplifiers (Medium, Instagram, LinkedIn, Twitter) continue recycling the investment success narrative without engaging the prediction accuracy question — the two discourses are not converging and are likely reaching entirely different audiences [51][52][15][22][46][55]

Sources

  1. [1] IREN - ️$3.6bn GPU financing secured for Microsoft contract — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  2. [2] IREN Reports Q2 FY26 Results — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  3. [3] IREN Reports Q2 FY26 Results: $3.6B Microsoft Contract, 140k GPU Expansion | IREN posted on the topic | LinkedIn — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  4. [4] FY26 Q2 - Intelligent Cloud Performance - Investor Relations - Microsoft — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  5. [5] Situational Awareness, Q4 2025: Exiting Chip Giants, Scaling the ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  6. [6] Situational Awareness Portfolio and News | GuruFocus — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  7. [7] Leopold Aschenbrenner - Situational Awareness LP Portfolio Stock Holdings | Quiver Quantitative — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  8. [8] Situational Awareness LP · Pablo Stafforini — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  9. [9] Bernstein Hikes Bitcoin Miner Targets as AI Infrastructure Play ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  10. [10] Wall Street Cuts Cipher Mining (CIFR) and TeraWulf (WULF) Price Targets - AOL — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  11. [11] Bitcoin mining report | Q1 2026 - CoinShares — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  12. [12] Bitcoin Mining’s AI Pivot: 2026 Thesis Update — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  13. [13] Bitcoin Miners Pivot to AI Hosting as Hash Rate Drops - Phemex — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  14. [14] The Transformation Of Bitcoin Mining Into AI Hosting - Seeking Alpha — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  15. [15] Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI data centers! $CIFR (ex-mining) now ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  16. [16] Lawfare Daily: Daniel Kokotajlo and Eli Lifland on Their AI 2027 Report | Lawfare — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  17. [17] Lawfare Daily: Daniel Kokotajlo and Eli Lifland on Their AI 2027 Report - The Lawfare Podcast | Acast — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  18. [18] [PDF] The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  19. [19] Preparing National Security Officials for the Challenges of AI | Lawfare — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  20. [20] Narrowing the National Security Exception to Federal AI Guardrails | Lawfare — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  21. [21] Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 24 year old who wrote a 165 page AGI ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  22. [22] Asked Gemini to make a table with a few financial metrics for Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI researcher, the fou... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-05-02)
  23. [23] JUST IN: Leopold Aschenbrenner, the OpenAI safety researcher who got fired at 22, just grew a hedge fund from $225M to $... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-30)
  24. [24] JUST IN: Leopold Aschenbrenner, fired from OpenAI at 22, just grew a hedge fund from $225M to $5.5B in roughly one year. — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-30)
  25. [25] THIS NUMBER IS WILD: A 22-year-old got fired from OpenAI. One year later, he's reportedly running one of the best-perfor... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-30)
  26. [26] ANOTHER SIGNAL: The biggest edge in markets right now might be ex-frontier AI researchers. — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-30)
  27. [27] Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 24 year old who wrote a 165 page AGI manifesto, got it right on the money, and turned it into… — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-04-30)
  28. [28] This is Leopold Aschenbrenner and this clip is from before the hedge fund, before the 13F filings, he raised $225 millio… — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-04-30)
  29. [29] Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 24 year old who built a $5.5 billion fund by being right about AI earlier than almost everyon… — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-05-01)
  30. [30] Milk Road AI — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  31. [31] Iren targets $3.4B ARR by end of 2026 as GPU financing secures ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  32. [32] IREN Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - Yahoo Finance — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  33. [33] Iren targets $3.4B in annualized AI cloud revenue by end of 2026 as ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  34. [34] Bitcoin Miners, Now AI Compute Leaders, Face Profitability Concerns | Investor's Business Daily — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  35. [35] Bitcoin miners' power edge makes them key AI infrastructure players ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  36. [36] Bitcoin (BTC) Miners Emerge as Key AI Infrastructure Partners Amid Power Crunch: Bernstein — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  37. [37] Bitcoin mining meltdown? Why IREN’s real future is in AI, according to Bernstein - DL News — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  38. [38] Bernstein sees IREN pivoting from Bitcoin mining to $3.7B AI cloud ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  39. [39] Cipher Digital (Nasdaq:CIFR) - Stock Analysis - Simply Wall St — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  40. [40] CoinShares Bitcoin Mining Bericht – Q1 2026 — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  41. [41] CoinShares 2026 Report: Have Bitcoin Miners Reached Their ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  42. [42] Bitcoin miners pivot to AI and HPC as cryptocurrency market slumps — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  43. [43] Generative AI funding: A sober retrospective and the trends shaping ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  44. [44] OpenAI faces a make-or-break year in 2026 — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  45. [45] Why AI Companies May Invest More than $500 Billion in 2026 — reactive:big-tech-q1-2026-cloud-earnings
  46. [46] How did Leopold do? Evaluating Situational Awareness's predictions — EA Forum — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  47. [47] How did Leopold do? Evaluating Situational Awareness's predictions — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  48. [48] AI predictions for 2026 — EA Forum — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  49. [49] Summary of Situational Awareness - The Decade Ahead — EA Forum — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  50. [50] Open thread: 2026 Q2 (April - June) — EA Forum — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  51. [51] Response to Aschenbrenner's "Situational Awareness" — EA Forum — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  52. [52] Situational Awareness Summarized - Part 1 — LessWrong — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  53. [53] AI Timelines and National Security: The Obstacles to AGI by 2027 | Lawfare — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  54. [54] 2 years ago, people thought these AI 2027 predictions were crazy — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  55. [55] Looking back at 'Situational Awareness'... : r/accelerate - Reddit — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  56. [56] He Got Fired by OpenAI. Then Turned $225M into $5.5B in 12 ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  57. [57] He Was Fired by OpenAI at 23. Now His $1.5 Billion Fund Says AGI ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  58. [58] Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI Thesis: Powering the Next ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  59. [59] Meet Leopold Aschenbrenner. He got fired from OpenAI at ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  60. [60] Decoding the $5.5B AI Infrastructure Portfolio — What Leopold Aschenbrenner Sees That Wall Street Missed — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-28)
  61. [61] Bitcoin Miners Thrive Off a New Side Hustle: Retooling Their Data ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  62. [62] Why Bitcoin miners' AI pivot could be the boon they need — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  63. [63] Forget Crypto — Bitcoin Miners Just Became America's AI ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  64. [64] Can IREN's 150K GPU Fleet Drive $3.7B AI Cloud ARR Target in ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  65. [65] How former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner turned a viral AI prophecy into profit, with a $1.5 billion hedge fund and outsize influence from Silicon Valley to D.C. | Fortune — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  66. [66] This 24-Year-Old's $4.5B Bet on AI's Real Problem (Leopold ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  67. [67] Situational Awareness 13F Shows $5.5B Bet on Bitcoin Miners and AI Power | Stephanie Soquet — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  68. [68] Situational Awareness Current Portfolio, 13F Holdings (2026-02-11) — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  69. [69] Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI Manifesto: AGI by 2027 - LinkedIn — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  70. [70] Introduction - SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  71. [71] [PDF] Situational Awareness, The Decade Ahead — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  72. [72] Bill Gates disagrees with a former OpenAI researcher who sees AGI this decade | Fortune — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  73. [73] Leopold Aschenbrenner’s hedge fund is betting on power and Bitcoin miners to fuel the AI boom | Fortune — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  74. [74] 24-Year-Old Former OpenAI Researcher Bets $100 Million on Bitcoin Miners for AI Infrastructure | KuCoin — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  75. [75] A 24-year-old got fired from OpenAI two years ago. He started a hedge fund. In the first half of 2025 it returned 47% wh... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-30)
  76. [76] The improbable $1.5B AGI bet of a 23-year-old ex–OpenAI researcher — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  77. [77] How a 23-year-old former OpenAI researcher turned a viral AI prophecy into profit, with a $1.5 billion hedge fund and outsize influence from Silicon Valley to D.C. — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
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  85. [85] SITUATIONAL AWARENESS LP Top 13F Holdings — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  86. [86] Situational Awareness LP Portfolio Holdings - Fintel — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
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  90. [90] SITUATIONAL AWARENESS LP Institutional Portfolio | Nasdaq — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  91. [91] Situational Awareness Portfolio | Leopold Aschenbrenner 13F Holdings & Trades — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis