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Leopold Aschenbrenner's AGI Thesis and Hedge Fund Success · history

Version 7

2026-05-02 13:23 UTC · 183 items

Narrative

As of early May 2026, the Situational Awareness LP story continues to generate new intelligence on two simultaneous fronts: the operational execution of IREN and the intellectual ecosystem surrounding AGI timeline predictions. IREN is now the subject of a Seeking Alpha analysis titled 'IREN Is Racing To Win AI's Most Constrained Resource — And It's Already Winning,'[1] framing power capacity rather than GPU availability as the binding constraint in the AI infrastructure build-out. A LinkedIn post confirms that IREN's Q1 FY26 results had already publicly committed to the $3.4B AI Cloud ARR target,[2] indicating the revenue target predates the Q2 FY26 results previously captured in this synthesis and was embedded in company guidance earlier than noted. Daniel Scrivner published a standalone analysis of Aschenbrenner's Q4 2025 trades and holdings,[3] providing a second detailed portfolio intelligence window alongside the previously noted mlq.ai piece; together they narrow the range of uncertainty on the fund's post-rotation composition. Galaxy Research, a major institutional crypto research firm, published a comprehensive analysis of bitcoin mining's transition to AI data center infrastructure,[4] adding a fourth major institutional voice to the sector thesis underpinning the Situational Awareness LP portfolio, after Bernstein, S&P Global, and CoinShares.

The most strategically significant new development is the rapid expansion and self-revision of the AI 2027 prediction ecosystem. The Kokotajlo et al. authors posted a LessWrong update explicitly titled 'Clarifying how our AI timelines forecasts have changed since AI 2027,'[5] indicating their predictions have already evolved since publication — establishing a dynamic, self-updating prediction environment rather than a stable forecast. Asterisk Magazine published a retrospective evaluating Kokotajlo's 2026 world predictions made before he co-authored the AI 2027 report,[6] running the same kind of calibration scoring that EA Forum has applied to Aschenbrenner's 2024 manifesto and creating a direct comparison baseline between the two prediction frameworks. The American Psychoanalytic Association now has a formal AI 2027 analysis through a psychoanalytic lens,[7] and the full report PDF is publicly accessible at ai-2027.com,[8][9] confirming the report has achieved cross-disciplinary institutional reach well beyond its technical AI safety origins. Most significantly for the policy discourse, RAND has published a second piece — 'Don't Sweat the AGI Race'[10] — that sits in apparent tension with its concurrent publication on 'The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security,'[11] suggesting that even within a single institution, the AGI race question has not resolved into a unified policy stance. The emergence of an internal RAND counterpoint was not captured in the previous synthesis and represents a genuinely new dimension in the institutional debate.

The viral amplification cycle has extended to new platforms and geographies in ways that perpetuate the narrative confusion around AUM figures. Business Insider's 2024 reporting on Aschenbrenner's firing from OpenAI continues to resurface[12] as foundational context for new audiences. A Substack piece carries the $5.5B and '12 months' framing,[13] while the Chinese-language outlet 36kr reports '$1.5B' and uses the '23-year-old' characterization,[14] sustaining simultaneous multi-AUM circulation across different geographic audiences. Instagram has new content framing the story as 'a $5 billion bet,'[15] Facebook carries the '24-year-old researcher' narrative,[16] and Reddit r/CryptoCurrency is running an active thread asking why Aschenbrenner is 'betting $1bn on Bitcoin miners,'[17] extending the audience to retail crypto investors who are encountering the story through a Bitcoin-centric rather than AI-centric frame. FutureSearch has published OpenAI revenue and profitability projections for 2026[18] that provide an independent demand-side reference for the AI infrastructure thesis: if OpenAI's revenue trajectory confirms hyperscaler-grade growth, the GPU and power capacity positions embedded in the Situational Awareness LP portfolio have a stronger structural demand foundation.

The discourse has evolved toward a meta-level of parallel prediction evaluation. Both Aschenbrenner's 2024 manifesto and the Kokotajlo et al. AI 2027 report are now subjects of active calibration exercises — EA Forum scoring Aschenbrenner's claims, Asterisk Magazine scoring Kokotajlo's 2026 predictions before his 2027 report, and the AI 2027 authors themselves publishing real-time forecast updates. The two prediction frameworks are now close enough in structure and authorship background that their relative accuracy will serve as evidence about whether the 'informational edge from alignment research access' narrative is replicable or specific to Aschenbrenner's particular analysis. Whether Situational Awareness LP has repositioned its portfolio to reflect any updated AGI forecasts remains, along with verified total AUM and specific post-rotation position weights, the central unanswered empirical question in this story.

Timeline

  • 2024-06: Aschenbrenner publishes 'Situational Awareness,' a 165-page manifesto predicting AGI by 2027 and framing the GPT-2 to GPT-4 leap as proof of exponential AI progress [23][82][24][83][84]
  • 2024-07-02: Bill Gates publicly disagrees with Aschenbrenner's AGI-this-decade thesis in Fortune, representing early high-profile institutional skepticism of the manifesto's core timeline [85]
  • 2024: Aschenbrenner launches Situational Awareness LP with approximately $225 million in seed capital; initial Bitcoin miner position reported at approximately $100 million [86][20][24][87]
  • 2025-06: Fund reports approximately 47% returns in H1 2025, significantly outperforming broad markets [88]
  • 2025-10-08: Bernstein Research publishes analysis via CoinDesk identifying Bitcoin miners as key AI infrastructure partners amid power crunch; independently predicts IREN pivot to $3.7B AI cloud business [37][38][39]
  • 2025-10-08: Fortune publishes profile detailing how Aschenbrenner turned a 'viral AI prophecy into profit'; fund valued at approximately $1.5 billion at time of publication [78][89][90]
  • 2025-Q4: Situational Awareness LP exits chip giant positions and scales the compute infrastructure layer, per mlq.ai analysis of Q4 2025 13F filing; Daniel Scrivner publishes independent Q4 2025 trades and holdings analysis as a second portfolio intelligence window [47][48][50][3]
  • 2025-12-29: The Economist publishes 'OpenAI faces a make-or-break year in 2026,' adding a major institutional voice to the question of whether the AGI timeline thesis is on track [53]
  • 2026-02: S&P Global Market Intelligence publishes 'Bitcoin miners pivot to AI and HPC as cryptocurrency market slumps,' becoming the third major institutional research provider to validate the miner/AI infrastructure thesis [51]
  • 2026-02-05: IREN Reports Q2 FY26 Results: $3.6B GPU financing secured for Microsoft contract, 140k GPU fleet expansion, $3.4B ARR target by end of 2026 confirmed; covered by GlobeNewswire, Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance, and MSN [28][29][30][31][32][33]
  • 2026-02: Bernstein hikes Bitcoin miner price targets as AI infrastructure play, reinforcing its October 2025 bullish thesis with updated targets [40]
  • 2026-02: Wall Street analysts cut price targets on Cipher Mining (CIFR) and TeraWulf (WULF), introducing within-sector differentiation as execution quality diverges among miners [35]
  • 2026-02: CoinShares publishes Bitcoin Mining Report Q1 2026, providing systematic sector data on hash rate, profitability, and AI hosting pivot across the mining industry [42][43][44][91]
  • 2026-02-11: 13F filing date per GuruFocus; Situational Awareness LP's quarterly holdings become public regulatory record, tracked across GuruFocus, Quiver Quantitative, and Pablo Stafforini's notes [81][92][93][48][49][50]
  • 2026-03-05: Fortune reports on fund's strategy betting on power companies and Bitcoin miners as AI infrastructure plays; AUM described at multi-billion scale [86]
  • 2026-04-23: Social media accounts begin amplifying the fund's growth story, with $220-225M to $5.5B framing going viral [94]
  • 2026-04-28: International coverage picks up in French-language financial media and Chinese crypto commentary; robot2trade adopts explicit 'What Wall Street Missed' framing; skeptical voices emerge [95][96][97][73]
  • 2026-04-30: Viral peak: 13F filings indexed across 9+ financial data platforms; Yahoo Finance and ainvest publish 'Top 7 Holdings' pieces; retrospective evaluation ecosystem forms across EA Forum, Observer, Lawfare, AGI Friday Substack, and Reddit r/agi [81][98][99][100][101][55][102][62][103][65][93][104][80]
  • 2026-04-30: WSJ publishes 'Bitcoin Miners Thrive Off a New Side Hustle: Retooling Their Data Centers for AI,' marking mainstream newspaper validation of the core Aschenbrenner investment thesis [74]
  • 2026-05-01: Milk Road AI publishes thread framing Aschenbrenner's edge as rooted in direct engagement with alignment research; Reddit r/accelerate publishes 'Looking back at Situational Awareness'; HedgeFollow adds Situational Awareness LP to tracking platform [25][66][105][26]
  • 2026-05-01: Investor's Business Daily publishes 'Bitcoin Miners, Now AI Compute Leaders, Face Profitability Concerns,' introducing the first major profitability scrutiny of the miner-to-AI-compute transition [34]
  • 2026-05-01: Medium, TheAGIClock, and new LinkedIn posts extend the viral amplification cycle; Medium carries the $5.5B figure while TheAGIClock uses the earlier $1.5B figure, sustaining simultaneous multi-AUM circulation [67][68][69][70]
  • 2026-05-02: Lawfare publishes Daniel Kokotajlo and Eli Lifland interview on their 'AI 2027 Report,' creating a parallel prediction framework by another former OpenAI safety researcher; RAND publishes 'The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security' [45][106][46][63][64]
  • 2026-05-02: MilkRoadAI issues another tweet on Aschenbrenner; Financial Guru uses Gemini to generate a financial metrics table about the fund, extending the AI-assisted amplification cycle [27][72]
  • 2026-05: AI 2027 authors (Kokotajlo et al.) post LessWrong update clarifying how their AI timeline forecasts have changed since the report's publication, establishing the prediction framework as dynamic and self-revising [5]
  • 2026-05: Asterisk Magazine publishes retrospective evaluating Kokotajlo's 2026 world predictions made before the AI 2027 report, creating a calibration baseline that parallels EA Forum's evaluation of Aschenbrenner's manifesto [6]
  • 2026-05: American Psychoanalytic Association publishes AI 2027 analysis through a psychoanalytic lens; full PDF accessible at ai-2027.com — the report has achieved cross-disciplinary institutional reach beyond AI safety origins [7][8][9]
  • 2026-05: RAND publishes 'Don't Sweat the AGI Race,' a counterpoint to its concurrent publication on the AGI race and international security, revealing internal institutional tension on the policy implications of AGI timelines [10][11]
  • 2026-05: Daniel Scrivner publishes dedicated Q4 2025 trades and holdings analysis for Aschenbrenner's fund, providing a second detailed portfolio intelligence window and narrowing uncertainty on post-rotation composition [3]
  • 2026-05: Galaxy Research publishes analysis of bitcoin mining's transformation into AI data center infrastructure, adding a fourth major institutional crypto/finance research voice to the miner/AI pivot thesis [4]
  • 2026-05: Seeking Alpha publishes bullish IREN analysis framing power capacity as the binding AI constraint; Reddit r/CryptoCurrency, Instagram, Facebook, and new Substack extend viral amplification to retail crypto audiences with $1B, $5B, and $5.5B AUM framings simultaneously in circulation [1][15][13][16][17][14]

Perspectives

Market Fit (@AIMarketFit)

Strongly bullish on Aschenbrenner as emblematic of a broader pattern: ex-frontier AI researchers hold structural informational edges that traditional finance has not priced in; frames the $5.5B outcome as a signal for the entire category

Evolution: Consistent across multiple posts on April 30, 2026; remains a primary viral amplifier

[19][20][21][22]

Milk Road AI (@MilkRoadAI)

Promotional framing celebrating Aschenbrenner's predictive accuracy and investment success; specifically highlighting his direct engagement with alignment research as the origin of his investment edge

Evolution: Issued a third tweet as of May 2 (item 5069), continuing to amplify the '24-year-old who wrote a 165-page AGI document' framing. The core message is stable across multiple posting cycles.

[23][24][25][26][27]

IREN (Iris Energy) management

Actively executing the miner-to-AI-cloud transition thesis: $3.6B in GPU financing secured for Microsoft contract, targeting $3.4B ARR by end of 2026 via a 140k GPU fleet; power capacity framed as the key competitive moat

Evolution: Q1 FY26 LinkedIn post (item 5605) confirms the $3.4B ARR target was publicly committed before the Q2 FY26 results previously captured, indicating the thesis has been in official company guidance longer than the synthesis implied. Seeking Alpha's 'already winning' framing (item 5606) reflects market recognition of IREN's power capacity advantage.

[28][29][30][31][32][33][2][1]

Investor's Business Daily

Cautiously skeptical: acknowledges miners have become AI compute leaders but highlights profitability concerns for Q1 2026, naming specific companies (Wulf, CoreZ, CIFR, Hut 8) with hash price and margin pressure data

Evolution: Consistent from prior cycle; its profitability concerns are reinforced by Wall Street analyst target cuts on CIFR and WULF specifically (item 4914), validating the underlying skepticism

[34][35]

Bernstein Research

Raised Bitcoin miner price targets as AI infrastructure plays, reinforcing its October 2025 bullish thesis with updated estimates; appears to be differentiating sector leaders from laggards rather than uniformly endorsing the category

Evolution: Consistent and upgraded from prior cycles; Bernstein and the broader non-Bernstein analyst community are now explicitly diverging on individual names

[36][37][38][39][40]

Wall Street analyst consensus (non-Bernstein)

Cutting price targets on Cipher Mining (CIFR) and TeraWulf (WULF), signaling that the miner/AI pivot thesis does not uniformly benefit all names and that execution quality is now the key differentiator

Evolution: Consistent from prior cycle

[35][41]

CoinShares

Systematic sector research on Bitcoin mining's Q1 2026 state; measured assessment of the AI pivot thesis's actual profitability impact across the industry

Evolution: Consistent from prior cycle

[42][43][44]

Galaxy Research

Institutional crypto research firm validating bitcoin mining's transformation into AI data center infrastructure as a structural thesis, not a speculative pivot — adds a fourth major institutional voice to the miner/AI thesis after Bernstein, S&P Global, and CoinShares

Evolution: New voice this cycle. Galaxy Research's institutional credibility in crypto markets lends additional weight to the sector thesis, particularly for crypto-native institutional investors who may weight Galaxy analysis more heavily than traditional finance research.

[4]

Daniel Kokotajlo et al. (AI 2027 report authors)

Published the AI 2027 report predicting near-term AGI timelines, then immediately posted a LessWrong clarification on how their forecasts have already changed since publication — indicating the prediction framework is live and dynamic rather than static

Evolution: Significantly evolved this cycle. Previously captured as authors of a parallel prediction framework (item 5013); now confirmed to be actively revising their own forecasts in real time (item 5399), which creates a direct contrast with Aschenbrenner's 2024 manifesto which has not been publicly revised since publication. Asterisk Magazine's retrospective (item 5400) is calibrating their 2026 predictions, providing a track-record baseline.

[45][46][5][6][8][9]

Asterisk Magazine

Calibration-focused: evaluating Kokotajlo's 2026 world predictions before he co-authored the AI 2027 report, creating a prediction track record that will inform judgments about the 2027 report's credibility

Evolution: New voice this cycle. Asterisk is running the same prediction-scoring methodology applied to Aschenbrenner by EA Forum, creating a parallel evaluation framework that will eventually allow direct comparison of the two ex-OpenAI safety researchers' predictive accuracy.

[6]

RAND Corporation

Now bifurcated internally: 'The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security' frames AGI timelines as a matter of urgent strategic concern, while 'Don't Sweat the AGI Race' offers a calming counterpoint — RAND has not resolved into a unified institutional stance on the AGI race

Evolution: Significantly evolved from prior cycle. Previously RAND appeared as a single institutional voice elevating AGI to strategic studies treatment. The 'Don't Sweat the AGI Race' counterpoint (item 5406) reveals internal institutional debate, which is more informative than a single unified RAND position would have been.

[11][10]

Daniel Scrivner

Analytical: published a dedicated Q4 2025 holdings analysis for Situational Awareness LP, providing an independent interpretation of 13F data alongside mlq.ai's 'Exiting Chip Giants' piece

Evolution: New voice this cycle. Adds a second analytical layer on the portfolio rotation question that was the most significant unanswered development from the prior synthesis.

[3]

mlq.ai / portfolio trackers (GuruFocus, Quiver Quantitative, Pablo Stafforini)

Documenting a significant Q4 2025 portfolio rotation: Situational Awareness LP exited chip giant positions and scaled the compute layer, suggesting a deliberate tactical shift away from semiconductor direct beneficiaries toward physical AI infrastructure

Evolution: Consistent from prior cycle; the Scrivner analysis (item 5404) now serves as an independent corroborating window on the same 13F data, increasing confidence that the rotation characterization is directionally accurate

[47][48][49][50][3]

S&P Global Market Intelligence

Institutional validation of the miner/AI and HPC pivot thesis, contextualizing it against cryptocurrency market weakness as a structural forcing function for the transition

Evolution: Consistent from prior cycle

[51][52]

The Economist

Frames OpenAI as facing a make-or-break year in 2026, implying the AGI timeline thesis depends on OpenAI's continued progress

Evolution: Consistent from prior cycle

[53]

Goldman Sachs

Macro bullish on AI infrastructure investment, projecting $500B+ in 2026 AI company capex — providing the demand-side underpinning for the entire power and miner thesis

Evolution: Consistent from prior cycle

[54]

EA Forum evaluators / LessWrong

Analytical and calibration-focused; 'How did Leopold do?' frames evaluation as prediction-scoring rather than financial success; LessWrong summary and EA Forum response continue to circulate for new audiences

Evolution: Consistent; the community remains actively engaged with both the Aschenbrenner manifesto and the parallel Kokotajlo AI 2027 report prediction ecosystem

[55][56][57][58][59][60][61][5]

Lawfare / national security analysts

Policy-focused; examining AI timeline implications through national security and AI governance lenses, with content spanning national security official preparation, AI guardrail narrowing, and the Kokotajlo/Lifland AI 2027 Report

Evolution: Consistent from prior cycle

[62][63][45][64][46]

Reddit communities (r/agi, r/accelerate, r/CryptoCurrency)

Mixed retrospective across communities: r/agi noted 'people thought these predictions were crazy'; r/accelerate running 'Looking back at Situational Awareness'; r/CryptoCurrency now asking 'why this fired OpenAI employee is betting $1bn on Bitcoin miners' — a distinctly Bitcoin-frame entry point

Evolution: Expanded this cycle with r/CryptoCurrency (item 5615) adding a retail crypto investor community encountering the story through a Bitcoin lens rather than the AI or forecasting frames dominant in r/agi and r/accelerate

[65][66][17]

Mainstream viral amplifiers (Medium, LinkedIn, TheAGIClock, Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, Substack, 36kr)

Recycling the 'fired from OpenAI, turned $225M into billions' narrative across platforms; simultaneous circulation of $1.5B (36kr), $1B Bitcoin bet (Reddit), $5B bet (Instagram), and $5.5B in 12 months (Substack) framings

Evolution: Expanded geographically: 36kr (Chinese-language, item 5613) and new Facebook/Instagram/Substack entries extend the reach. Business Insider's original 2024 firing story (item 5611) is resurfacing as foundational context for new audiences encountering the narrative for the first time.

[67][68][69][70][71][72][27][15][12][13][14][16]

robot2trade (@robot2trade1)

Explicit 'What Wall Street Missed' framing positioning Aschenbrenner's success as evidence of information asymmetry between AI insiders and traditional finance

Evolution: Fully undermined by current conditions: WSJ, Yahoo Finance, S&P Global, Goldman Sachs, Bernstein, IBD, and now Galaxy Research are all publishing the same miner/AI infrastructure thesis; Wall Street is not 'missing' anything

[73][74][75][37][51][76][40][35][4]

Tensions

  • The Q4 2025 chip giant exit characterization now has two analytical interpretations (mlq.ai and Daniel Scrivner) of the same 13F data, but the specific names sold, the timing within the quarter, and the completeness of the rotation remain unverified — 13F filings track equity long positions only, not shorts, derivatives, or intra-quarter timing [47][48][49][50][3]
  • RAND has published two perspectives that sit in tension: 'The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security' frames AGI timelines as urgent strategic concerns, while 'Don't Sweat the AGI Race' offers a calming counterpoint — RAND has not resolved into a unified institutional stance, and which perspective will dominate U.S. policy discourse is an open question with direct implications for the regulatory environment Aschenbrenner's portfolio is positioned around [11][10]
  • The Kokotajlo et al. AI 2027 authors have already published a LessWrong clarification on how their forecasts have changed since the report, while Aschenbrenner's 2024 manifesto has not been publicly revised — if the AI 2027 timeline predictions are already being walked back or adjusted, this complicates the parallel with Aschenbrenner and weakens the 'ex-OpenAI safety researchers have convergent informational edges' narrative [5][6][45][46]
  • IREN's GPU count has shifted between coverage cycles: 150k GPUs in earlier analyst coverage vs. 140k in Q2 FY26 results — a 7% discrepancy that may reflect a revised contract scope, different counting methodology, or reporting inconsistency, but is material for whether the $3.4B ARR target is achievable on the disclosed fleet [28][29][77][30]
  • The analyst community is explicitly bifurcated within the miner/AI thesis: Bernstein is hiking miner targets broadly while other Wall Street analysts are cutting price targets specifically on CIFR and WULF — creating simultaneous buy and sell signals within the same sector thesis, with no public confirmation of which names Situational Awareness LP holds at what weight after the Q4 2025 rotation [40][35][41][34]
  • IREN's $3.6B GPU financing is secured but not yet deployed: financing commitments differ from revenue, and CoinShares' Q1 2026 sector data and IBD profitability analysis both indicate that the broader miner category faces hash price and margin pressure — the question of whether IREN's Microsoft contract translates to actual net income improvement remains open [28][33][44][34][38]
  • AUM figures remain inconsistent across active circulation: $1.5B on LinkedIn, TheAGIClock, and 36kr; $1B Bitcoin bet on Reddit; $5B on Instagram; $5.5B on Medium and new Substack — all simultaneously in active circulation, and the 13F filings track equity holdings but not total AUM, leaving the headline growth figure unverified by any regulatory data [68][69][70][67][78][79][20][80][81][14][13][17][15]
  • The calibration evaluation ecosystem is now running parallel exercises on both Aschenbrenner's 2024 manifesto (EA Forum, LessWrong) and Kokotajlo's track record (Asterisk Magazine) — if Kokotajlo's 2026 predictions score poorly on the Asterisk retrospective, this would undermine the credibility of the AI 2027 report that has been held up as a parallel validation of Aschenbrenner's AGI timeline thesis [6][5][55][56][60][61]

Sources

  1. [1] IREN Is Racing To Win AI's Most Constrained Resource - And It's ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  2. [2] IREN reports Q1 FY26 results, targets $3.4bn AI Cloud ARR by 2026 | IREN posted on the topic | LinkedIn — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  3. [3] Leopold Aschenbrenner's Trades and Holdings in Q4 2025 — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  4. [4] AI Bitcoin Mining Powers AI Data Centers & Infrastructure Investment | Galaxy — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  5. [5] Clarifying how our AI timelines forecasts have changed since AI 2027 — LessWrong — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  6. [6] Before he wrote AI 2027, he predicted the world in 2026. How did he do? — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  7. [7] AI 2027: Through a Psychoanalytic Lens - American Psychoanalytic Association — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  8. [8] [PDF] Daniel Kokotajlo Scott Alexander Thomas Larsen Eli Lifland Romeo ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  9. [9] AI 2027 — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  10. [10] Don't Sweat the AGI Race - RAND — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  11. [11] The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security | RAND — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  12. [12] Ex-OpenAI Researcher Explains Why He Was Fired - Business Insider — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  13. [13] He Got Fired by OpenAI. Then Turned $225M into $5.5B in 12 Months. — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  14. [14] 23-Year-Old Genius Fired by OpenAI Rakes in $1.5 Billion with AI — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  15. [15] A fired AI researcher just turned his warning into a $5 billion bet on ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  16. [16] A 24 year old researcher once fired from OpenAI is now making ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  17. [17] Why this fired OpenAI employee is betting $1bn on Bitcoin miners — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  18. [18] OpenAI Revenue, Losses, and Profitability in 2026 - FutureSearch — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  19. [19] JUST IN: Leopold Aschenbrenner, the OpenAI safety researcher who got fired at 22, just grew a hedge fund from $225M to $... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-30)
  20. [20] JUST IN: Leopold Aschenbrenner, fired from OpenAI at 22, just grew a hedge fund from $225M to $5.5B in roughly one year. — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-30)
  21. [21] THIS NUMBER IS WILD: A 22-year-old got fired from OpenAI. One year later, he's reportedly running one of the best-perfor... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-30)
  22. [22] ANOTHER SIGNAL: The biggest edge in markets right now might be ex-frontier AI researchers. — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis (2026-04-30)
  23. [23] Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 24 year old who wrote a 165 page AGI manifesto, got it right on the money, and turned it into… — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-04-30)
  24. [24] This is Leopold Aschenbrenner and this clip is from before the hedge fund, before the 13F filings, he raised $225 millio… — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-04-30)
  25. [25] Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 24 year old who built a $5.5 billion fund by being right about AI earlier than almost everyon… — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-05-01)
  26. [26] Milk Road AI — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  27. [27] Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 24 year old who wrote a 165 page AGI ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  28. [28] IREN - ️$3.6bn GPU financing secured for Microsoft contract — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  29. [29] IREN Reports Q2 FY26 Results: $3.6B Microsoft Contract, 140k GPU Expansion | IREN posted on the topic | LinkedIn — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  30. [30] Iren targets $3.4B ARR by end of 2026 as GPU financing secures ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  31. [31] IREN Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - Yahoo Finance — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  32. [32] Iren targets $3.4B in annualized AI cloud revenue by end of 2026 as ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  33. [33] IREN Reports Q2 FY26 Results — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  34. [34] Bitcoin Miners, Now AI Compute Leaders, Face Profitability Concerns | Investor's Business Daily — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  35. [35] Wall Street Cuts Cipher Mining (CIFR) and TeraWulf (WULF) Price Targets - AOL — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  36. [36] Bitcoin miners' power edge makes them key AI infrastructure players ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  37. [37] Bitcoin (BTC) Miners Emerge as Key AI Infrastructure Partners Amid Power Crunch: Bernstein — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  38. [38] Bitcoin mining meltdown? Why IREN’s real future is in AI, according to Bernstein - DL News — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  39. [39] Bernstein sees IREN pivoting from Bitcoin mining to $3.7B AI cloud ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  40. [40] Bernstein Hikes Bitcoin Miner Targets as AI Infrastructure Play ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  41. [41] Cipher Digital (Nasdaq:CIFR) - Stock Analysis - Simply Wall St — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  42. [42] CoinShares Bitcoin Mining Bericht – Q1 2026 — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  43. [43] CoinShares 2026 Report: Have Bitcoin Miners Reached Their ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  44. [44] Bitcoin mining report | Q1 2026 - CoinShares — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  45. [45] Lawfare Daily: Daniel Kokotajlo and Eli Lifland on Their AI 2027 Report | Lawfare — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  46. [46] Lawfare Daily: Daniel Kokotajlo and Eli Lifland on Their AI 2027 Report - The Lawfare Podcast | Acast — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  47. [47] Situational Awareness, Q4 2025: Exiting Chip Giants, Scaling the ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  48. [48] Situational Awareness Portfolio and News | GuruFocus — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  49. [49] Situational Awareness LP · Pablo Stafforini — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  50. [50] Leopold Aschenbrenner - Situational Awareness LP Portfolio Stock Holdings | Quiver Quantitative — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  51. [51] Bitcoin miners pivot to AI and HPC as cryptocurrency market slumps — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  52. [52] Generative AI funding: A sober retrospective and the trends shaping ... — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  53. [53] OpenAI faces a make-or-break year in 2026 — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
  54. [54] Why AI Companies May Invest More than $500 Billion in 2026 — reactive:big-tech-q1-2026-cloud-earnings
  55. [55] How did Leopold do? Evaluating Situational Awareness's predictions — EA Forum — reactive:aschenbrenner-agi-thesis
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