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China's front-end etch equipment imports are down 18% year-to-date while deposition imports are up 3%, with Naura identified as the dominant ICP etch supplier at CXMT, China's leading DRAM manufacturer [1][2]. Japan's chip equipment exports to China are reported down over 20% year-on-year, adding geographic specificity to the broader import decline [3]. Morgan Stanley channel checks show CXMT delivered HBM2E samples to customers in H1 2025, with mass production scheduled for H1 2026 [6], while Tom's Hardware reports CXMT targeting domestic HBM3 production by end of 2026 with Naura among the designated tool suppliers [7]. One source frames CXMT's overall capacity as plateaued under U.S. export controls, with HBM and PC demand providing partial offset [10] — a counterpoint to the prevailing expansion narrative.

CXMT is China's most advanced DRAM manufacturer and the primary test case for whether domestic equipment can support leading-edge memory production at scale. The combination of a confirmed etch import decline, Naura's established position at CXMT, and an active HBM production program suggests localization is reaching into technically demanding process territory — while the plateaued-capacity framing raises the question of whether U.S. export controls are slowing that trajectory even as domestic tooling advances.

China's front-end etch equipment imports fell 18% year-to-date through mid-2026 while deposition imports rose 3% over the same period, according to SemiAnalysis [1]. The firm's channel checks place Naura as the largest ICP etch supplier at CXMT, China's leading DRAM manufacturer, with further share gains expected as CXMT expands capacity [2]. Japan's chip equipment exports to China are reported down more than 20% year-on-year [3], adding geographic specificity to what multiple sources frame as a broader domestic substitution trend. A Hanwha Investment & Securities research note independently confirms the import slowdown and improving revenues at domestic equipment companies, providing institutional corroboration without attributing the gains to specific suppliers [4]. AnySilicon characterizes China's broader localization effort as entering a new growth phase [5].

CXMT's HBM program is now more precisely documented. Morgan Stanley channel checks show CXMT delivered HBM2E samples to customers in the first half of 2025, with mass production scheduled to begin in the first half of 2026 [6]. Tom's Hardware separately reports CXMT targeting domestic HBM3 production by end of 2026, with Naura listed among the designated tool suppliers for assembly processes [7]. These timelines are consistent and align with the post-IPO capacity expansion narrative [8][9], though neither source specifies which etch steps in HBM production are covered by domestically qualified tools.

A counterpoint to the expansion framing has entered the record. One source describes CXMT's capacity as having plateaued under U.S. export controls, with the HBM push and stable PC demand providing some offset [10]. This sits in tension with the multiple sources emphasizing aggressive expansion, though the two framings are not necessarily contradictory: overall wafer capacity may have stalled even as CXMT redirects some of that capacity toward HBM products and continues qualifying domestic tooling. The Big Three — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — still hold over 90% of global DRAM market share [11], so CXMT's localization progress reflects a directional signal rather than a current competitive threat.

The central interpretive question remains unresolved: whether the etch import decline is structural or transient. Morgan Stanley described April 2026 import data as showing "mixed signals" [12], which sits in mild tension with the SemiAnalysis and Hanwha narratives of durable substitution. No source has directly reconciled the April data with the full year-to-date trend. The divergence between etch and deposition import trajectories also remains unexplained — no published analysis has described why etch localization is advancing faster than deposition.