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Micron as the Most Undervalued AI Semiconductor Stock · history

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2026-05-24 04:46 UTC · 119 items

What

Micron Technology ($MU) is up roughly 70% year-to-date in 2026 [1] with analysts projecting 30–80% further upside [2], driven by confirmed start of advanced 1-alpha DRAM production at its Manassas, Virginia facility [6][8], $6.1 billion in CHIPS Act funding [12], and Jensen Huang's explicit endorsement that DRAM fabs should expand because 'Nvidia will buy it all.' [14] The competitive picture has grown more complex: Samsung reportedly supplies 60%+ of Google's TPU HBM3E [23] while simultaneously delaying HBM4 mass production [24], and separate analysis suggests SK Hynix may lose its HBM market leadership by 2026 [19]. A parallel custom ASIC surge — AI server compute ASIC shipments are projected to triple by 2027 as hyperscalers build alternatives to NVIDIA GPUs [28] — introduces a new variable into the demand thesis.

Why it matters

Memory has historically rewarded investors with violent boom-bust cycles rather than durable compounding. The accumulating evidence — confirmed domestic manufacturing investment, $6.1 billion in federal backing [12], and Nvidia's CEO explicitly backstopping DRAM demand [14] — has put the 'this cycle is different' thesis under serious scrutiny. The ASIC expansion adds a layer of uncertainty: if hyperscalers increasingly route HBM demand through custom silicon rather than NVIDIA GPUs, the primary demand backstop for Micron's bull thesis becomes less complete even as Samsung's HBM4 stumble [24] and SK Hynix's potential crown vulnerability [19] could simultaneously accelerate Micron's market share gains.

Open questions

  • With Samsung reportedly supplying 60%+ of Google's TPU HBM3E [23] while simultaneously delaying HBM4 mass production [24], does Samsung's entrenched hyperscaler customer relationships limit how far Micron can grow its HBM market share even if Samsung stumbles on next-gen products?

  • If custom AI ASIC shipments triple by 2027 [28] and hyperscalers route an increasing share of compute through non-NVIDIA silicon, does Jensen Huang's 'Nvidia will buy it all' framing [14] remain a sufficient demand backstop for Micron — or does ASIC-driven HBM demand require a separate validation?

  • SK Hynix may lose HBM market leadership by 2026 amid price competition [19] — does this create a window primarily for Micron, primarily for Samsung, or does it trigger a price war that compresses margins for all three players?

  • Micron's $6.1 billion CHIPS Act award is confirmed [12] — but what are the disbursement triggers and production milestones, and how do they interact with the timeline for 40% of US DRAM output [11] coming from domestic fabs?

Narrative

Micron Technology has become one of the most actively discussed names in semiconductor investing in mid-2026, built on three interlocking claims: that AI infrastructure spending has permanently elevated high-bandwidth memory (HBM) demand, that Micron has secured a defensible and growing share of that demand, and that its valuation — despite a roughly 70% year-to-date stock gain [1] — still dramatically understates its forward earnings power. Analysts project 30–80% further upside [2], and the company's PEG ratio has been cited at approximately 0.4, reflecting a market still discounting the durability of multi-year earnings growth. [3] Motley Fool and Yahoo Finance have each flagged Micron as a top undervalued chip stock [4][5], adding mainstream financial media weight to what began as a concentrated social media bull campaign.

The most concrete recent catalyst is the confirmed start of advanced 1-alpha DRAM production at Micron's Manassas, Virginia facility, announced on May 22 and retweeted widely across financial Twitter within 24 hours. [6][7][8] This milestone sits within a far larger domestic manufacturing buildout: Micron has committed $200 billion to US semiconductor manufacturing and R&D [9][10], plans to produce 40% of its DRAM output on American soil [11], and has secured $6.1 billion in CHIPS Act funding [12] with active support from the Trump administration. [13] Jensen Huang reinforced the demand side publicly, stating that DRAM fabs should expand because Nvidia 'will buy it all,' [14] and separately that AI memory needs are continuing to rise even as Nvidia runs 'the largest supply chain in the world.' [15] Multiple formal research pieces have framed this as a 'memory supercycle' — a structural shift in supply-demand economics driven by HBM's physical integration with AI accelerators, which ties memory supply tightly to GPU roadmaps rather than to broad commodity markets. [16][17][18]

The competitive landscape has become simultaneously clearer and more contested. SK Hynix dominates HBM with approximately 62% market share, but analysis from mid-2025 suggests it may lose that crown by 2026 amid intensifying price competition from rivals. [19] The battle for second place between Micron and Samsung is genuinely fluid: Micron appears to have overtaken Samsung in 2025 [20] and again in 2026 HBM rankings, [21] while a separate report indicates Samsung has reclaimed second place. [22] Complicating the picture further, Samsung reportedly supplies over 60% of Google's TPU HBM3E memory [23] — a large and growing hyperscaler workload — even as Samsung has delayed HBM4 mass production amid ongoing DRAM redesign challenges. [24] SK Hynix's HBM leadership has already translated into historic financial results: the company overtook Samsung in annual profits for the first time, a direct consequence of early HBM dominance. [25]

A fourth competitive force has emerged with growing analytical weight: the custom ASIC market. Hyperscalers including Google, Meta, and Amazon are building custom AI silicon to reduce reliance on NVIDIA GPUs [26][27], with AI server compute ASIC shipments projected to triple by 2027. [28] Google has announced its 8th-generation TPU [29] and split its TPU line to address agentic AI workloads separately. [30] This ASIC surge matters to the Micron bull thesis in two directions: it broadens the total pool of HBM-consuming silicon beyond NVIDIA's roadmap, potentially validating the structural demand case even if NVIDIA's share of AI compute declines; but it also dilutes the 'Nvidia will buy it all' framing as a clean shorthand for Micron's demand outlook, since custom ASICs source HBM through different supply agreements and may favor Samsung's established hyperscaler relationships. [23] The bear case — that every memory cycle produces 'this time is different' arguments and ends in oversupply-driven collapse regardless [31] — remains consistent and outnumbered but has not been falsified.

Timeline

  • 2026-05-16: $MU bull discussion begins circulating on financial social media [46]
  • 2026-05-17: Sam Badawi notes Micron more than doubled HBM market share in one year; bear/bull debate intensifies; Grok summarizes PEG ~0.4 thesis and cyclicality counter-argument [40][3][36][37][39]
  • 2026-05-18: Milk Road AI publishes major bull threads: 'most undervalued stock in AI trade,' Jensen Huang supply chain alignment cited, $2,000 price target posted [32][33]
  • 2026-05-19: Micron and peers sell off sharply after comments about potential capacity constraints; separate bullish catalyst updates continue [43][47][48]
  • 2026-05-20: Micron raises outlook at JPMorgan Global Technology Conference; Jensen Huang states Nvidia has 'the largest supply chain in the world' but AI demand still outstrips global capacity [49][44][15]
  • 2026-05-21: NVIDIA reports $81.6B Q1 revenue (+85% YoY); $MU rises 2–3%+ to ~$748–$750; Jensen Huang's 'DRAM fabs should expand, Nvidia will buy it all' statement circulates [45][50][51][14]
  • 2026-05-22: Virginia 1-alpha DRAM production announcement goes viral; @wallstengine tweet retweeted by over a dozen accounts; Hardik Shah posts 'JUST IN' alert; $MU holds near $757.83 [52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][8]
  • 2026-05-23: Virginia DRAM news viral spread continues; Motley Fool and Yahoo Finance publish 'top undervalued chip stock' pieces; 'memory supercycle' analytical framing gains traction; CHIPS Act $6.1B Micron award confirmed in coverage [6][7][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][4][5][16][17][18][12]

Perspectives

Milk Road AI (@MilkRoadAI)

Aggressively bullish; calls Micron the most undervalued AI trade stock, projects $2,000/share, cites Jensen Huang's supply chain comments and Virginia 1-alpha DRAM milestone as primary evidence

Evolution: Consistent throughout; Virginia manufacturing confirmation added a concrete data point to an existing bull thesis

[32][33][34]

Jensen Huang / NVIDIA

AI has fundamentally changed memory market dynamics; DRAM fabs should expand because Nvidia 'will buy it all'; AI memory needs are rising and demand still outstrips even Nvidia's largest-in-the-world supply chain

Evolution: Stance has hardened to an explicit endorsement of DRAM investment — the 'Nvidia will buy it all' framing is more direct than prior supply-chain-alignment comments and is being widely cited as external demand validation

[14][35][15][33]

Memory supercycle analysts (FSMOne, TSPA Semiconductor, Investing.com, UncoverAlpha)

AI has triggered a structural shift in memory economics — HBM's physical integration with AI accelerators ties demand to GPU roadmaps rather than commodity cycles, making this categorically different from prior DRAM booms

Evolution: Consistent; formal research weight added to the structural-shift argument that was previously argued mainly by Jensen Huang and retail social media bulls

[16][17][18][31]

Mainstream financial media (Motley Fool, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com)

Bullish; frame Micron as a top undervalued chip stock with 30–80% further upside despite 70% YTD gain; validate the AI HBM demand thesis for general audiences

Evolution: Consistent; the bull thesis has graduated from social media and retail investing forums into established financial media

[4][5][2][1]

Custom ASIC / hyperscaler build-out analysts (Counterpoint Research, Tom's Hardware, Oplexa, Futurum)

Hyperscalers are aggressively building custom AI silicon to reduce NVIDIA dependence; AI server ASIC shipments will triple by 2027; Google has split its TPU line for agentic workloads — HBM demand is real but not exclusively NVIDIA-routed

Evolution: New perspective this pass; adds a structural complexity to the bull thesis by showing HBM demand is broader than GPU-only, while also diluting 'Nvidia will buy it all' as a complete demand explanation

[26][27][28][30][29]

Samsung

Dominant HBM supplier to Google TPU (60%+ of HBM3E) [23]; simultaneously delaying HBM4 mass production amid DRAM redesign challenges [24] — positioned as an incumbent with hyperscaler relationships but execution risk on next-gen

Evolution: Samsung's position has become more contradictory: strong current hyperscaler revenue but weakening competitive trajectory relative to both Micron and SK Hynix on next-gen HBM

[23][24][22][20]

Bearish / skeptical market participants

Memory remains brutally cyclical; every cycle ends with oversupply-driven collapse; 'this time is different' is historically the most expensive phrase in investing

Evolution: Consistent skeptical position; given analytical framing in coverage that acknowledges the novelty argument while maintaining the cyclicality warning

[36][37][38][31]

Period Trader (@periodtrader_)

Upgraded from skeptic to bull; acknowledges prior bearish mistake and now views AI-driven HBM boom as a structural margin and demand game-changer; stock still seen as undervalued

Evolution: Clear documented shift from bearish to bullish; notable as a named public reversal

[39]

Sam Badawi (@Sam_Badawi)

Bullish based on market share data; highlights Micron more than doubling HBM market share in one year as a key driver of industry growth

Evolution: Consistent

[40]

Grok AI (@grok)

Analytical synthesizer presenting both bull and bear arguments without taking a directional stance; explains PEG ~0.4 math, cyclicality risks, and 2027 DRAM revenue projections

Evolution: Neutral throughout; serves as a reference voice for structural data points

[3][41][36][42]

Tensions

  • Memory supercycle analysts and Jensen Huang argue AI has permanently ended memory's boom-bust cycle — HBM demand is structurally tied to GPU roadmaps rather than commodity capex. Bears counter that every memory cycle produces 'this time is different' arguments and ends in oversupply-driven collapse regardless. [14][16][17][18][36][31]
  • Jensen Huang frames NVIDIA as the primary demand backstop for Micron ('Nvidia will buy it all'), but custom ASIC analysts show hyperscalers are aggressively building non-NVIDIA AI silicon — with ASIC shipments projected to triple by 2027 — meaning HBM demand is broader but also less cleanly validated by any single vendor's commitment. [14][26][27][28][30]
  • HBM market share data is internally contradictory: Micron appears to have overtaken Samsung for the #2 position in 2025 and 2026, yet Samsung reportedly supplies 60%+ of Google's TPU HBM3E — suggesting Samsung retains dominant hyperscaler relationships even if aggregate rankings favor Micron. [21][22][20][23]
  • Aggressive price targets ($2,000/share from Milk Road AI) and mainstream analyst upside projections (30–80%) clash with a market pricing that still implies skepticism about long-run earnings durability — the PEG of ~0.4 reflects the market's unwillingness to fully credit the AI demand thesis as durable. [33][3][2][1]
  • Short-term price volatility undercuts the conviction signal: Micron sold off sharply around May 19 on capacity constraint commentary, then rallied on the JPMorgan raised outlook and NVIDIA earnings — suggesting the market is actively debating whether near-term supply tightness is sustainable or an imminent ceiling. [43][44][45]

Sources

  1. [1] Micron Stock Is Up 70% in 2026. Here's Why Analysts Still See More ... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  2. [2] Micron Gains Momentum, Again—30% to 80% Upside in 2026 — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  3. [3] @osarood @StockSavvyShay @FuturumEquities **$MU's PEG ~0.4** (per that multi-year chart) comes from a low forward P/E (~... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-17)
  4. [4] 2 Top Bargain Stocks Ready for a Bull Run | The Motley Fool — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  5. [5] The Most Undervalued Chip Stock to Own in 2026 - Yahoo Finance — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  6. [6] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-23)
  7. [7] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-23)
  8. [8] MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA ... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  9. [9] Micron Technology announces $200bn investment in semiconductor manufacturing and R&D in Idaho, New York and Virginia - The Manufacturer — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  10. [10] Micron expands US manufacturing commitment to $200B — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  11. [11] Micron to produce 40% of DRAM in the U.S. | Megan J. posted on the topic | LinkedIn — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  12. [12] Micron to Receive $6.1 Billion in CHIPS Act Funding — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  13. [13] Micron and Trump Administration Announce Expanded U.S. Investments in Leading-Edge DRAM Manufacturing and R&D | Micron Technology | Delbert Parks | 21 comments — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  14. [14] Jensen Huang’s Bold Message: DRAM Fabs Should Expand, Nvidia Will Buy It All. — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  15. [15] Jensen Huang says $NVDA has “the largest supply chain in the world” but AI demand is still outstripping global capacity. — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-20)
  16. [16] Memory supercycle: A structural shift rewriting supply and demand paradigm | FSMOne Singapore — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  17. [17] AI Is Not a Cycle—It Is a Structural Shift in Memory Economics — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  18. [18] Why 2026 Marks a Structural Shift in Tech Economics | Investing.com — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  19. [19] SK Hynix may lose HBM crown by 2026 as rivals trigger price ... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  20. [20] Micron rises to second in global HBM market as Samsung slips — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  21. [21] SK hynix holds 62% of HBM, Micron overtakes Samsung, 2026 ... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  22. [22] Samsung Electronics Overtakes Micron to Reclaim Second Place in ... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  23. [23] Samsung Reportedly Supplies 60%+ of Google TPU HBM3E, Set to Remain Primary Supplier in 2026 : r/hardware — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  24. [24] Samsung Electronics is reportedly pushing back the mass production of its next-gen high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips to 2026, signaling a more cautious rollout amid ongoing DRAM redesign efforts. — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  25. [25] SK Hynix overtakes Samsung in annual profits for the first time - CNBC — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  26. [26] Custom ASIC Market 2026 Why Hyperscalers Are Ditching NVIDIA — reactive:big-tech-q1-2026-cloud-earnings
  27. [27] The custom AI ASIC state of play (May 2026) - Tom's Hardware — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  28. [28] AI Server Compute ASIC Shipments to Triple by 2027 as Custom ... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  29. [29] Google TPU 8th-gen announced, accelerating custom silicon for AI ... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  30. [30] Google Splits Its TPU Line to Enter the Era of Agentic Silicon - Futurum — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  31. [31] Every Memory Cycle Ends the Same. Until It Doesn't. - UncoverAlpha — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  32. [32] Micron is one of the most UNDERVALUED stocks in the entire AI trade right now and everyone should be buying at these pri… — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-05-18)
  33. [33] Micron will be a $2,000 stock within the next couple of years and Jensen Huang just gave the most important reason why (… — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-05-18)
  34. [34] Micron is extremely undervalued and what just happened at their Virginia factory is the clearest proof yet (Save this). — Milk Road AI Twitter (2026-05-22)
  35. [35] Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Says AI Memory Needs Are Rising ... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  36. [36] @ai_hyperbull @TheBigBerbowski Mr. Market doubts Micron can deliver that $100+ EPS growth reliably. Memory is brutally c... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-17)
  37. [37] I keep seeing people talk about Micron “crashing like every other chip cycle.” — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-17)
  38. [38] Micron, AI memory demand, and whether this cycle is truly different — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case
  39. [39] Was wrong on Micron. The AI-driven HBM boom is a game changer for margins and demand. Upgrading my take — stock still lo... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-17)
  40. [40] $MU more than doubled its HBM market share in just one year, helping drive explosive growth across the memory industry a... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-17)
  41. [41] @flowpom @babyfolio @jukan05 **Reply:** For SK Hynix, Samsung & Micron, 2027 revenue will likely be 65-80%+ DRAM (HB... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-17)
  42. [42] @jaydubs83 @JaguarAnalytics **Great question on $MU.** — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-21)
  43. [43] US/Nasdaq side: Micron (and peers like Seagate) sold off sharply after comments highlighting potential capacity constrai... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-19)
  44. [44] Micron $MU just raised its outlook at JPM. — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-20)
  45. [45] Micron $MU up 2.1% premarket to ~$748 after NVIDIA's $81.6B revenue +85% YoY reinforces AI memory demand. HSBC and Meliu... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-21)
  46. [46] $MU — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-16)
  47. [47] 🚨 $MU (Micron) catalyst update: AI-driven HBM demand is accelerating 📈 MU benefits as a key HBM3E supplier. DRAM prices... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-19)
  48. [48] Most people still treat Micron like a traditional memory stock. — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-19)
  49. [49] MICRON PRESENTS AT JPMORGAN GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY CONFERENCE — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-20)
  50. [50] $MU pushing past $750 up 3%+ today as memory market dynamics heavily favor Micron. Supply-side bottlenecks & labor ... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-21)
  51. [51] Nvidia’s $81.6B Q1 and strong Q2 guidance reinforced the AI factory buildout narrative, with $MU up around 3% as HBM and... — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-21)
  52. [52] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-22)
  53. [53] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-22)
  54. [54] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-22)
  55. [55] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-22)
  56. [56] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-22)
  57. [57] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-22)
  58. [58] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-22)
  59. [59] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-22)
  60. [60] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-22)
  61. [61] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-22)
  62. [62] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-22)
  63. [63] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-22)
  64. [64] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-22)
  65. [65] 📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $MU Micron Begins U.S. Production of Advanced 𝟏α 𝐃𝐑𝐀𝐌 Chips — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-22)
  66. [66] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-23)
  67. [67] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-23)
  68. [68] RT @1p_semicon: Micron Advances Made-in-America Memory With Manufacturing Expansion in Virginia — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-23)
  69. [69] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-23)
  70. [70] RT @StockMKTNewz: Micron $MU said today that it has started building — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-23)
  71. [71] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-23)
  72. [72] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-23)
  73. [73] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-23)
  74. [74] RT @wallstengine: MICRON STARTS ADVANCED DRAM PRODUCTION IN VIRGINIA — reactive:micron-hbm-bull-case (2026-05-23)